[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 23 December 22 issued 2330 UT on 23 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 24 10:30:55 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Dec: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Dec 25 Dec 26 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 132/86 132/86 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 23-Dec was at the R0 level,
with the largest flare being C6.5 from AR3171 (N22E15, beta).
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk.
AR3169 (N20E06, beta) has shown growth in its trailer spots and
AR3171 has also shown some growth. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Two filament eruptions were observed
in H-alpha and SDO imagery simultaneously from 23/1138 UT near
S25W55 and N05W65. A CME was observed in SOHO imagery from 23/1212UT
but modelling indicates it will not be geoeffective. A second
CME was observed from the northeast quadrant from 23/2012UT but
will not be geoeffective. Solar activity is expected to be at
R0-R1 levels over 24-26 Dec. The solar wind speed on UT day 23-Dec
was variable and ranged from 468 to 546 km/s, and is currently
on an upward trend near 545 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +9 to -10 nT. Bz was intermittently southward
for several periods over the past 24 hours. The increase in solar
wind speed may continue over 24-25 Dec, before a return to background
levels on 26-Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 23 Dec : A K
Australian Region 11 22323323
Cocos Island 10 22323313
Darwin 11 22323323
Townsville 12 32333223
Learmonth 11 22323323
Alice Springs 12 22333323
Gingin 13 32324323
Canberra 12 23324223
Hobart 16 33424323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Dec :
Macquarie Island 28 22546522
Casey 25 45534233
Mawson 32 54545424
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 11 0012 4342
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Dec 16 G0, chance of G1
25 Dec 15 G0, slight chance of G1
26 Dec 12 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 59 was issued on 23 December
and is current for 24 Dec only. G0 Geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 23-Dec. Mostly G0-G1
geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region,
and an isolated period of G2 at Macquarie Island due to a small
equatorial coronal hole high speed wind stream. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 24-26 Dec, with a slight possibility
of an isolated G1 period over 24-25 Dec due to the coronal hole
high speed wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal-fair Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal to mildly degraded HF conditions are expected
over 24-26 Dec, due to expected mild geomagnetic activity, during
local night and dawn hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Dec 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 77
Dec 70
Jan 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
25 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
26 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 102 was issued on 23
December and is current for 24-25 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 23-Dec were mostly
near predicted monthly values, with 20% enhancements observed
in the northern regions at local night and 25% depressions at
local dawn. Significant sporadic-E was observed at most sites.
MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted values over 24-26
Dec, with sporadic-E expected to continue over the period. Mild
depressions are possible during local dawn over 24-25 Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Dec
Speed: 404 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 103000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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