[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 December 22 issued 2331 UT on 22 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 23 10:31:04 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 DECEMBER - 25 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Dec: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Dec 24 Dec 25 Dec
Activity R0-R1,chance R2 R0-R1,chance R2 R0-R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Dec was at the R0 level.
Solar region AR3169(N22E08, beta) produced only low level C class
flares. This region may be showing some decay in its trailer
spots. With the emergence of new small spot groups, there are
currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. Solar
region AR3163(S22W90) has rotated off disk. New Solar region
AR3173 has rotated onto the solar disk at solar latitude N25.
Solar region AR3171(N25E39, beta-gamma) has been reported to
have increased in magnetic complexity, and appears to have grown
slightly, though has remained flare quiet. No significant activity
was observed from the other solar regions. A small solar filament
located at S20E03 lifted off the disk 22/00-03UT. No Earth directed
CMEs were observed. A slow predominately southward narrow CME,
out of the ecliptic plane, was observed in LASCO and STEREO-A
imagery from 22/0136UT in LASCO C2. CME analysis using LASCO
and STEREO-A views gave a better fit for a farside event, and
at this stage this CME is not considered related to the small
on disk filament eruption. Solar activity is expected to be at
R0-R1 levels over 23-25 Dec, with a slight chance of R2 flare
activity. The solar wind speed on UT day 22-Dec varied from 377
to 475 km/s with a slight overall increasing trend, and is currently
near 500km/s, though the data is noisy. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +8 to -10 nT. Southward fluctuations
in Bz observed 22/1120-1830UT. The mild increase in solar wind
speed is due to small coronal holes in the northern solar hemisphere.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Dec : A K
Australian Region 9 21223323
Cocos Island 7 11122332
Darwin 9 21123323
Townsville 9 11223323
Learmonth 9 21123323
Alice Springs 9 21223323
Gingin 13 32224333
Canberra 9 11223323
Hobart 11 11233423
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Dec :
Macquarie Island 20 11345532
Casey 24 45533333
Mawson 25 23333464
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 1132 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Dec 14 G0, slight chance of G1
24 Dec 9 G0
25 Dec 7 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 22-Dec. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with G1 periods observed at Macquarie
Island and Casey, an isolated period of G2 was observed at Mawson.
Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 23-25 Dec,
with a slight possibility of isolated G1 conditions on 23-Dec
due to coronal hole high speed wind streams.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 23-25.
Mildly degraded conditions possible local night hours for middle
to high latitudes on 23-Dec. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Dec 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 77
Dec 70
Jan 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Dec 65 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
24 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
25 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 22-Dec were mostly near predicted monthly values,
with 10-15% depressions observed after local dawn for southern
Australian region. Sporadic E was observed at Cocos Island. MUFs
are expected to be near monthly predicted values over 23-25 Dec.
Mildly degraded HF conditions may be experienced during local
night hours southern Australian region 23 Dec. Isolated minor
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Dec
Speed: 390 km/sec Density: 7.7 p/cc Temp: 84000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list