[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 21 December 22 issued 2330 UT on 21 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 22 10:30:57 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 DECEMBER - 24 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Dec: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Dec 23 Dec 24 Dec
Activity R0-R1,chance R2 R0-R1,chance R2 R0-R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 21-Dec was low. Solar region
AR3169(N20E19, beta) produced several C class flares, the largest
a C7.6 at 21/0621UT. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. No significant activity was observed from
the other solar regions. No Earth directed CMEs were observed.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 22-24 Dec,
with a chance of an R2 event. The solar wind speed on UT day
21-Dec varied from 339 to 438 km/s, and is currently near 428
km/s with a steady trend. The peak total interplanetary magnetic
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 15 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +12 to -12 nT. A mild increase in solar wind speed
may be experienced due to scattered small coronal holes in the
northern solar hemisphere.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 21 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 21222322
Cocos Island 6 21222320
Darwin 7 21222322
Townsville 9 22322322
Learmonth 9 21222422
Alice Springs 7 11232321
Gingin 7 21222322
Canberra 8 11322322
Hobart 9 11332322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Dec :
Macquarie Island 8 11321421
Casey 25 44643322
Mawson 20 43433424
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1110 0123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Dec 14 G0, slight chance of G1
23 Dec 14 G0, slight chance of G1
24 Dec 9 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 21-Dec. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G2 observed
at Casey. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
22-24 Dec, with a slight possibility of isolated G1 conditions
on 22-23 Dec due to coronal hole high speed wind streams.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Dec Normal Fair-normal Fair
24 Dec Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 22-24.
Mildly degraded conditions possible local night hours for middle
to high latitudes on 23-Dec. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Dec 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 77
Dec 70
Jan 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
23 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
24 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 21-Dec were mostly near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced, with very slight depressions observed after
local dawn for southern Australian region. Sporadic E observed
local night hours at Hobart. Spread F observed local night hours
at Niue, with ionospheric amplitude scintillation 21/10UT-16UT.
MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted values over 22-24
Dec. Mildly degraded HF conditions may be experienced during
local night hours southern Australian region 22-23 Dec. Isolated
minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Dec
Speed: 366 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 85800 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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