[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 21 December 22 issued 2330 UT on 21 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 22 10:30:57 EST 2022


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 DECEMBER - 24 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Dec:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Dec: 139/93


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Dec             23 Dec             24 Dec
Activity     R0-R1,chance R2    R0-R1,chance R2    R0-R1,chance R2
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             135/89             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 21-Dec was low. Solar region 
AR3169(N20E19, beta) produced several C class flares, the largest 
a C7.6 at 21/0621UT. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions 
on the solar disk. No significant activity was observed from 
the other solar regions. No Earth directed CMEs were observed. 
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 22-24 Dec, 
with a chance of an R2 event. The solar wind speed on UT day 
21-Dec varied from 339 to 438 km/s, and is currently near 428 
km/s with a steady trend. The peak total interplanetary magnetic 
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 15 nT and the north-south IMF component 
(Bz) range was +12 to -12 nT. A mild increase in solar wind speed 
may be experienced due to scattered small coronal holes in the 
northern solar hemisphere.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Dec: G0

Estimated Indices 21 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   21222322
      Cocos Island         6   21222320
      Darwin               7   21222322
      Townsville           9   22322322
      Learmonth            9   21222422
      Alice Springs        7   11232321
      Gingin               7   21222322
      Canberra             8   11322322
      Hobart               9   11332322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     8   11321421
      Casey               25   44643322
      Mawson              20   43433424

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           3   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   1110 0123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Dec    14    G0, slight chance of G1
23 Dec    14    G0, slight chance of G1
24 Dec     9    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on 21-Dec. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G2 observed 
at Casey. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 
22-24 Dec, with a slight possibility of isolated G1 conditions 
on 22-23 Dec due to coronal hole high speed wind streams.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Dec      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
23 Dec      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal

COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 22-24. 
Mildly degraded conditions possible local night hours for middle 
to high latitudes on 23-Dec. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts 
are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Dec    92

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      77
Dec      70
Jan      70

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Dec    70    Near predicted monthly values
23 Dec    70    Near predicted monthly values
24 Dec    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region on UT day 21-Dec were mostly near predicted monthly values 
to 15% enhanced, with very slight depressions observed after 
local dawn for southern Australian region. Sporadic E observed 
local night hours at Hobart. Spread F observed local night hours 
at Niue, with ionospheric amplitude scintillation 21/10UT-16UT. 
MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted values over 22-24 
Dec. Mildly degraded HF conditions may be experienced during 
local night hours southern Australian region 22-23 Dec. Isolated 
minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Dec
Speed: 366 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:    85800 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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