[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 20 December 22 issued 2331 UT on 20 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 21 10:31:04 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 DECEMBER - 23 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Dec: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 1407UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Dec: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 135/89 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 20-Dec reached R1 levels, with
an M1.1 flare at 20/1408 UT from AR3169 (N20E32, beta-gamma).
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk.
AR3163 (S22W66, beta) and AR3171 (N25E53, gamma) have grown,
while all other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Several CMEs were observed; a slow CME was observed from the
southwest quadrant from 20/0200 UT, and a CME from the northwest
limb was observed from 20/0848 UT. Analysis indicates none of
the CMEs are considered geoeffective. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 21-23 Dec, with a chance of isolated
R2 flares. The solar wind speed on UT day 20-Dec varied, and
ranged from 340 to 525 km/s, and is currently near 370 km/s on
a steady trend. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 15 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +13 to -9 nT. Bz was southward oriented from 20/1800 until
20/2100 UT. The solar wind speed may increase on 21-Dec due to
a small coronal hole, however the hole has decayed over the past
24 hours so confidence is low. Solar wind speeds may increase
again by last 23-Dec as a new equatorial coronal hole rotates
into a geoeffective location.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 20 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 12221223
Cocos Island 6 11221223
Darwin 5 12121222
Townsville 7 12222322
Learmonth 8 12212323
Alice Springs 7 12221322
Gingin 7 11111224
Canberra 5 11211222
Hobart 6 12211223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Dec :
Macquarie Island 3 11110122
Casey 24 34552234
Mawson 18 33321354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 2422 2023
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Dec 14 G0, slight chance G1
22 Dec 10 G0
23 Dec 14 G0, slight chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 20-Dec. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1 observed
at Casey and Mawson. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 21-23 Dec, with a slight possibility of isolated G1 conditions
on 21-Dec and 23-Dec due to coronal hole high speed wind streams.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Fair Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Dec Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 21-23,
with degradations during local night and dawn hours likely for
high latitude regions due to persistent sporadic-E. Isolated
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Dec 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 77
Dec 70
Jan 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
22 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
23 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 101 was issued on
18 December and is current for 19-21 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 20-Dec were mostly
near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced in the northern
Australian sites after local dawn. Significant sporadic-E was
observed at most sites during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near monthly predicted values over 21-23 Dec, and degraded
conditions due to persistent sporadic-E are likely to continue
during the period. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Dec
Speed: 329 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 16700 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list