[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 19 December 22 issued 2331 UT on 19 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 20 10:31:00 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Dec: 152/107
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Dec 21 Dec 22 Dec
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 135/89 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 19-Dec was ar R0 levels, with
several C-class flares. The largest flare was C8.1 from AR3169
(N20E44, beta) at 19/1429 UT. There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3167 (N20W80, beta) has
been unstable, and AR3166(S09W59, beta-gamma) and AR3169 have
grown. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
A filament eruption was observed and was associated with a C7.5
flare from AR3167 at 19/1154 UT. A CME can be seen from the western
limb from 19/1212 UT in SOHO imagery and modelling indicates
it will not be geoeffective. No other CMEs were observed. Solar
activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 20-22 Dec, with
a chance of isolated R2 flares. The solar wind speed on UT day
19-Dec was steadily at background levels, and ranged from 301
to 384 km/s and is currently near 320 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 16 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -13 nT. On UT day 19-Dec, Bz was southward
from 0120 to 1930 UT, and was intermittently southward after
then for the rest of the UT day. The solar wind may be mildly
become elevated over 20-22 Dec due to a small equatorial coronal
hole high speed wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 19 Dec : A K
Australian Region 9 24312122
Cocos Island 8 14212122
Darwin 9 24312121
Townsville 8 24311121
Learmonth 10 24322122
Alice Springs 9 24311122
Gingin 8 23212132
Canberra 8 24311121
Hobart 11 25321121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Dec :
Macquarie Island 12 24333311
Casey 22 46423222
Mawson 19 35333333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0001 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Dec 16 G0, slight chance of G1
21 Dec 14 G0, slight chance of G1
22 Dec 14 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were mostly observed in the
Australian region on UT day 19-Dec, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Hobart. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 at Mawson and an isolated period of G2 at Casey. The isolated
period of geomagnetic activity was likely due to Bz being oriented
southward for several hours. A mild increase in geomagnetic activity
may be experienced over 20-22 Dec due to a coronal hole high
speed wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 20-22
Dec, with mildly degraded conditions possible at time for high
latitude regions at local night hours. Isolated minor shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Dec 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 77
Dec 70
Jan 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
21 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
22 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 101 was issued on
18 December and is current for 19-21 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian regions on UT day 19-Dec were mostly
near predicted monthly values. Sporadic-E was observed at most
Australian sites during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 20-22 Dec. Isolated
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Dec
Speed: 292 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 31100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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