[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 18 December 22 issued 2330 UT on 18 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 19 10:30:59 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 DECEMBER - 21 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Dec: 156/110
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Dec 20 Dec 21 Dec
Activity R0-R1,chance R2 R0-R1,chance R2 R0-R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 18-Dec was at the R0 level.
Solar region AR3169(N20E59, beta) produced five C class flares
with the largest a C5.4 flare at 18/0122UT. In white light there
appears to be further spots following AR3169 onto the solar disk.
At this stage, due to limb proximity, it is not clear if these
spots are part of AR3169 or another region is following close
behind. Solar region AR3162(S14W63, alpha) produced a C5.8 flare
at 18/1010UT. The other solar region of note AR3163(S22W39, beta)
was stable and quiet. There are currently 8 numbered regions
on the solar disk. Other regions mostly stable. Isolated R1 level
flaring, with the chance of and isolated R2 flare is expected
primarily due to AR3169. No significantly Earth directed CMEs
were observed. A westward CME was observed from 18/0700UT, possibly
related to southwest limb activity observed in SDO94 at S15 18/0614UT.
Another CME to the northwest was observed from 18/1048UT in LASCO
C2 and may possibly be related to the C5.8 flare from AR3162,
however the CME direction suggests a more northward disk location
and preliminary CME fitting favours a far side location as the
better fit. Further analysis will be conducted. The solar wind
speed on UT day 18-Dec was slow and steady ranging from 270 to
300km/sec, and is currently at 319km/sec. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10nT, and the north-south IMF (Bz)
range was +6 to -5nT. A minor discontinuity was observed in Bt
and Bz at 18/1949UT and may indicate the entry into a coronal
hole wind stream, if so the solar wind speed may now exhibit
an increasing trend. A small isolated coronal hole is visible
in the solar northern hemisphere now past the central meridian,
may mildly elevate wind speeds during 20-22 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 18 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11111112
Cocos Island 3 11111112
Darwin 6 32211112
Townsville 5 22121122
Learmonth 4 11022122
Alice Springs 3 10111112
Gingin 3 10012112
Canberra 2 00111112
Hobart 4 11121112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 10021111
Casey 13 34432212
Mawson 12 33212234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Dec :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0200 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Dec 10 G0
20 Dec 16 G0, slight chance of G1
21 Dec 14 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic region on 18-Dec. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 19-21 Dec. A mild increase in geomagnetic activity
may be experienced 20-21 Dec due to a coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 19-21
Dec, with mildly degraded conditions possible at time for high
latitude regions. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Dec 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 77
Dec 70
Jan 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
20 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
21 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 101 was issued on
18 December and is current for 19-21 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 18-Dec were mostly
near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced. MUFs are expected
to be generally near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
over 18-20 Dec. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Dec
Speed: 321 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 42600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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