[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 17 December 22 issued 2330 UT on 17 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 18 10:30:58 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 DECEMBER - 20 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Dec: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1953UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Dec: 155/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Dec 19 Dec 20 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 153/108 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 17-Dec was at the R1 level
due to a single M1 event from new region AR3169(N22E74, beta).
The flare appeared to be located just to the southwest of this
region. This region also produced three minor C class flares.
Another new solar region has rotated onto the solar disk at solar
latitude S20, region AR3170. At this stage the region appears
relatively small, though may not yet be fully rotated onto the
disk. This region produced a C5 flare at 17/1736UT. Departing
solar region AR3165, which produced the recent spate of flare
activity, is now almost off disk with only its trailer spots
just visible and produced a C8.7 flare at 17/0106UT, and a minor
C class flare. Solar regions AR3160(N24W68, alpha), AR3162(S14W46,
alpha), AR3166(S09W30, beta) produced isolated C class flares.
Solar region AR3163(S22W26, beta-gamma) appears to have declined
in its trailers, along with some reconfiguration in its leader
spots. All other sunspot regions showed little change. No Earth
directed CMEs were observed. Ejecta was visible from the M1 flare
near AR3169 in a southeast (non Earth) direction using GOES304
imagery from 17/1948UT, and a steeply southeast (non Earth) directed
narrow CME visible in LASCO C2 from 17/2036UT. A narrow CME was
observed in LASCO C2 from 17/0600UT also in a southeast direction
but could not be correlated to on disk activity. The solar wind
speed on UT day 17-Dec ranged from 270 to 352 km/s, and is currently
near 290 km/s, though the data is noisy and no data was available
17/00-06UT. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 6nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +5 to -2nT.
The solar wind may possibly increase slightly as a wide thin
section of a coronal hole in the southern hemisphere has crossed
the central meridian though this hole is quite south in solar
latitude. A small isolated coronal hole is visible in the solar
northern hemisphere also over the central meridian, which may
also contribute to mildly elevated wind speeds 20-22 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 17 Dec : A K
Australian Region 1 11001000
Cocos Island 1 11010000
Darwin - --------
Townsville 3 12111011
Learmonth 2 22001000
Alice Springs 1 11011001
Gingin 2 21001001
Canberra 1 11001010
Hobart 2 22101010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 11000000
Casey 18 55332122
Mawson 6 33211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 21000011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Dec 8 G0
19 Dec 14 G0
20 Dec 16 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 17-Dec. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with two periods of G1 at Casey. Mostly
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 18-20 Dec. A mild
increase in geomagnetic activity may be experienced in coming
days due to coronal hole wind streams.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Dec Normal Normal Fair
20 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 18-20
Dec, with mildly degraded conditions possible at time for high
latitude regions. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Dec 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 77
Dec 70
Jan 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Dec 95 Near predicted monthly values
19 Dec 95 Near predicted monthly values
20 Dec 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 17-Dec were mostly near predicted monthly values
to 20% enhanced. MUFs are expected to be generally near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced over 18-20 Dec. Isolated minor
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: N.A.
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: N.A.
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: N.A.
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: N.A.
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Dec
Speed: 328 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 40700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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