[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 December 22 issued 2331 UT on 16 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 17 10:31:26 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 DECEMBER - 19 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Dec: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.5 0202UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.2 0459UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.4 0549UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.2 0642UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.7 0738UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.6 0905UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 0943UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M4.0 1019UT possible lower European
M2.5 1440UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.3 1541UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Dec: 163/117
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Dec 18 Dec 19 Dec
Activity R1,chance R2 R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Dec was at the R1 level,
with frequent M-class flare activity. Solar region AR3165 (S18W71,
beta), was again the most active flaring solar region. This region
is now approaching the southwest solar limb. The M1 event at
16/0459UT appeared to be from a new solar region just on the
northeast solar limb at solar latitude N20, all other flare events
originated from AR3165(using GOES SUVI 094). The largest flares
were an M3.5 at 16/0202UT, and an M4 at 16/1019UT both from AR3165.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk.
Solar region AR3163(S22W13, beta-gamma), which has recently shown
growth and an increase in magnetic complexity, may now be reducing
in magnetic complexity. AR3166(S09W17, beta) which had been developing
intermediate spots, now exhibits more an open spot configuration.
All other sunspot regions showed little change. Despite the frequent
flare activity no Earth directed CMEs have been observed. Ejecta
was observed on the southwest limb in GOES SUVI 304 at 15/2038UT
but appears to be a limb event with a possibly associated CME
from 15/2112UT in LASCO C2. An eastward CME was observed in LASCO
C2 from 16/0439UT, which appears to be from behind the east limb.
Solar activity is expected to be at R1 levels over 17-19 Dec,
with a chance of R2 flare activity on 17-Dec. Solar flare activity
may decline after AR3165 rotates off the visible solar disk.
The solar wind speed on UT day 16-Dec was at background levels,
and ranged from 308 to 362 km/s, and is currently near 328 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7nT
and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +5 to -6nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to initially be at background levels on
17-Dec, possibly increasing mildly as a thin coronal hole is
in the southern hemisphere currently crossing the central meridian.
A small isolated coronal hole is visible in the solar northern
hemisphere approaching the central meridian, which may also contribute
to mildly elevated wind speeds in coming days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 21101012
Cocos Island 1 11000010
Darwin - --------
Townsville 3 21101012
Learmonth 2 21001012
Alice Springs 2 11101012
Gingin 3 21101012
Canberra 2 10001012
Hobart 3 21101012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 11011011
Casey 16 45422122
Mawson 13 43212143
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Dec :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 8 1211 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Dec 10 G0
18 Dec 12 G0
19 Dec 14 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 16-Dec. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G2 at Casey.
Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 17-19 Dec.
A mild increase in geomagnetic activity may be experienced 18-19
Dec, due to coronal hole wind streams.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Dec Normal Normal Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 17-19
Dec, with mildly degraded conditions possible at high latitudes
18-19 Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are probable for 17-Dec
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Dec 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 77
Dec 70
Jan 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
18 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
19 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 100 was issued on
14 December and is current for 15-17 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 16-Dec were mostly
near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. Spread F observed
at Perth and Hobart during local night. MUFs are expected to
be generally near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over
17-19 Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Dec
Speed: 348 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 51600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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