[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 December 22 issued 2330 UT on 15 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 16 10:30:54 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Dec: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 0137UT possible lower West Pacific
M2.4 0707UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.0 0758UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.5 1017UT possible lower European
M1.0 1611UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.1 1644UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M2.1 1656UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M5.7 2240UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Dec: 166/120
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Possible
10.7cm/SSN 164/118 162/116 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Dec was at the R2 level,
with several M-class flares. All flares came from AR31654 (S18W58,
beta), which has decreased in magnetic complexity. The largest
flares were M5.7 at 15/2240 UT, and M2 at 15/0700 UT. There are
currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3163
(S22W00, beta-gamma) and AR3166 (S09W03, beta) have grown but
not yet produced any significant flares. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Several CMEs were observed, but
none are considered geoeffective. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 16-18 Dec, with a chance of R2. The
solar wind speed on UT day 15-Dec was at background levels, and
ranged from 313 to 397 km/s, and is currently near 340 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8
nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +6 to -7 nT. Bz was
southward for two prolonged periods early in the UT day. The
solar wind speed is expected to remain at background levels on
16-Dec, possibly increasing mildly late 17-18 Dec as a thin,
persistent coronal hole is in the southern hemisphere currently
crossing the central meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 22221221
Cocos Island 4 11221211
Darwin - --------
Townsville 6 22221122
Learmonth 5 21221211
Alice Springs 6 22221222
Gingin 6 22220222
Canberra 4 12220121
Hobart 5 22221121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Dec :
Macquarie Island 3 11221011
Casey 21 36432223
Mawson 13 34323223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Dec :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0100 0221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Dec 6 G0
17 Dec 10 G0
18 Dec 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 15-Dec. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G2 at Casey.
Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 16-18 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 16-18
Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Dec 98
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 77
Dec 70
Jan 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Dec 105 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
17 Dec 95 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
18 Dec 95 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 100 was issued on
14 December and is current for 15-17 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 15-Dec were mostly
near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced, particularly at
local night. Sporadic-E was observed at most Australian sites
during local night. MUFs are expected to be generally near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced over 16-18 Dec. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Dec
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 19900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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