[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 December 22 issued 2331 UT on 14 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 15 10:31:05 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Dec: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.5 0740UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 0831UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.4 0927UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 1159UT possible lower European
M4.1 1231UT possible lower European
M6.4 1442UT probable lower South American/
Atlantic
M2.2 1712UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.3 2050UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M2.3 2058UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.3 2139UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M2.0 2153UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M4.5 2206UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Dec: 165/119
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 164/118 160/114 158/112
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Dec reached the R2 level,
with 10 M-class flares. Several low-level R1 M-class flares were
observed primarily from AR3165 (S18W45, beta-gamma) from 14/0740UT
to 14/1230UT. An R2 M6.3 flare occurred from AR3165 at 14/1440UT,
followed by two more low level M-class flares at 14/1720UT and
14/2050UT. An M4.5 flare occurred at 14/2200UT. There are currently
nine numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3163 (S22E12,
beta-gamma) has shown growth, but has only produced C-class flares
so far. AR3165 has shown rapid growth and is the most flare productive
sunspot region on the disk. AR3166 (S09E10, beta) has also shown
fast growth, but has not produced any flares yet. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R1-R2 levels over 15-17 Dec, with a chance of R3. Several
CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective. Several
CMEs were observed from the southwest quadrant from 14/0500UT,
with the first being directed too far south to impact Earth and
the next two CMEs being too far west. The solar wind speed on
UT day 14-Dec was on a declining trend at background levels and
ranged from 325 to 418 km/s, and is currently near 340 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7
nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +3 to -6
nT. Bz has been predominantly southward since 14/1530UT. The
solar wind speed is expected to remain near background levels
until a coronal hole in the southern hemisphere rotate into a
geoeffective position possibly by late 17-Dec, when solar wind
speeds are expected to increase.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11101211
Cocos Island 2 11101210
Darwin - --------
Townsville 3 10101222
Learmonth 3 11101211
Alice Springs 3 11101211
Gingin 3 10101221
Canberra 3 11100212
Hobart 2 01100211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 01000211
Casey 11 24412222
Mawson 13 23211344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Dec :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 2100 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Dec 6 G0
16 Dec 6 G0
17 Dec 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic region on 14-Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 15-17 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 14-16
Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Dec 122
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 77
Dec 70
Jan 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Dec 105 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
16 Dec 105 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
17 Dec 95 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 100 was issued on
14 December and is current for 15-17 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 14-Dec were mostly
15-25% enhanced. Sporadic-E was observed at Hobart and Learmonth
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be generally near
predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced over 15-16 Dec, with
MUFs returning to mostly near predicted values by 17-Dec. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Dec
Speed: 416 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 133000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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