[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 December 22 issued 2331 UT on 13 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 14 10:31:11 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 DECEMBER - 16 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Dec: 153/108
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec
Activity R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 152/107 148/102 144/98
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Dec was at the R0 level,
with low-level C-class flare activity. There are currently 10
numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. A new solar region
AR3167(N20E03, beta), has shown rapid growth, though solar X-ray
flux emission has yet to show any increasing trend/variability.
The largest region on disk AR3153(S17W86, beta) is currently
rotating off disk. Solar region AR3163(S22E26, beta), has shown
development in its trailers spots. All other regions are small
to medium in size and exhibit a simple magnetic configuration.
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly at R0 levels over
14-16 Dec, with a chance of R1 flares. A coronal hole is visible
in the southeast solar quadrant. No new geoeffective CMEs were
observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 13-Dec showed an overall
declining trend and ranged from 361 to 511 km/s and is currently
near 400 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +6 to -4
nT. A continuing overall declining trend in solar wind speed
is expected for today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 21101101
Cocos Island 2 22001000
Darwin - --------
Townsville 3 21101111
Learmonth 3 22101101
Alice Springs 1 11001101
Gingin 2 21101101
Canberra 2 20101100
Hobart 3 21102200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 11101100
Casey 15 44433112
Mawson 10 33211214
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Dec :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2100 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Dec 6 G0
15 Dec 6 G0
16 Dec 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic region on 13-Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 14-16 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 14-16
Dec. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Dec 122
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25-40%.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20-25%.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 77
Dec 70
Jan 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Dec 95 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Dec 95 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Dec 95 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 13-Dec were mostly enhanced 15-20%, with Cocos
Island MUFs strongly enhanced by up to 40%. Sporadic-E and spread
F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be generally near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
over 14-16 Dec. Isolated minor fadeouts possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Dec
Speed: 472 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 281000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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