[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 December 22 issued 2330 UT on 12 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 13 10:30:58 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Dec: 151/106
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 146/100 144/98
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Dec was at the R0 level,
with several low-level C-class flares. There are currently 9
numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk, with all of them
either stable or in decay. AR3153(S17W71, beta) has the largest
flare potential, however is due to rotate over the limb soon.
There are small new spots emerging near N25E15. Solar activity
is expected to be predominantly at R0 levels over 13-15 Dec,
with a chance of R1 flares due many small spots developing over
the last few days. No new geoeffective CMEs were observed. A
faint halo CME was observed at 12/0224UT in SOHO imagery. There
is no on-disk source so it is likely from a farside event, however
there is limited imagery available to analyze. A slow CME can
be observed from the southwest quadrant from 12/0936UT, but analysis
indicates it will not affect Earth. The solar wind speed on UT
day 12-Dec ranged from 426 to 505 km/s and is currently near
480 km/s, with a steady trend. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz)
range was +6 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to gradually
decline to background levels over 13-15 Dec as coronal hole high
speed wind stream effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 22110212
Cocos Island 2 21100111
Darwin - --------
Townsville 5 21111213
Learmonth 5 22111212
Alice Springs 4 22110112
Gingin 4 21110222
Canberra 4 12100113
Hobart 5 12211212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Dec :
Macquarie Island 3 22100112
Casey 22 45533223
Mawson 15 43323333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Dec :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2321 2312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Dec 6 G0
14 Dec 6 G0
15 Dec 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 12-Dec. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with 2 periods of G1 at Casey. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 13-15 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 13-15
Dec
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Dec 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 77
Dec 70
Jan 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
14 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
15 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 12-Dec were mostly near predicted monthly values,
with enhancements of 30% observed in the northern Australian
region and at Niue Island. Sporadic-E was observed at Cocos Islands
and Hobart during local night. MUFs are expected to be generally
near predicted monthly values over 13-15 Dec, with further enhancements
on 13-Dec possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Dec
Speed: 467 km/sec Density: 7.0 p/cc Temp: 228000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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