[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 December 22 issued 2331 UT on 11 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 12 10:31:20 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 DECEMBER - 14 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Dec: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Dec was at the R0 level
with several low level C-class flares. Solar regions AR3153(S17W59,
beta) and AR3163(S21E58, beta) produced C class flare activity,
with the largest event a C2.9 at 11/1140UT from AR3153. There
are currently 9 numbered solar regions on the visible solar disk,
with small new emerging spots at S17W06, S18W28 and S06E50, and
the decay of an existing minor solar region. No Earth directed
CMEs have been observed. Several faint CMEs were observed over
the UT day at 11/0200UT and 11/0812UT off the northwest limb,
and at 11/1012UT off the northeast limb which are considered
farside events. Solar ejecta was observed at 11/1050UT in GOES
SUVI imagery near AR3153 but no significant CME appeared associated
in LASCO C2, with a possible associated very narrow CME to the
southwest from 11/1248UT. However even if this is an associated
CME the far west longitude location of this activity at W60,
and very narrow angular extent of the CME would imply an Earth
miss. The solar wind speed on 11-Dec was steady, ranging from
429 to 531km/s, and is currently near 450 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to continue to gradually decline towards background
levels as coronal hole high speed wind stream effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 11 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 22212212
Cocos Island 3 21111201
Darwin - --------
Townsville 7 22212223
Learmonth 8 32212312
Alice Springs 6 22211213
Gingin 7 22212322
Canberra 6 22212212
Hobart 7 22212312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Dec :
Macquarie Island 15 23333511
Casey 21 35532323
Mawson 26 44433525
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Dec :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 2103 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Dec 6 G0
13 Dec 6 G0
14 Dec 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 11-Dec. Periods of G1 were observed at Casey, Mawson
and at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 12-14 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 12-14
Dec
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Dec 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25-35%.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 77
Dec 70
Jan 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Dec 75 Near predicted monthly values
13 Dec 75 Near predicted monthly values
14 Dec 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 99 was issued on
9 December and is current for 10-12 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 11-Dec were near predicted
monthly values, with enhancements 15 to 35% observed at the low
latitudes sites of Cocos Island and Niue. Mild depressions of
15% were observed early in the UT day for some southern region
sites. Mild spread F briefly observed over night at Hobart. Frequent
ionospheric sporadic E layer observed at middle latitude sites.
MUFs are expected to be generally near predicted monthly values,
with brief mild depressions after local dawn for the southern
Australian region which are not expected to persist. Isolated
minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Dec
Speed: 466 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 236000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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