[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 December 22 issued 2330 UT on 10 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 11 10:30:54 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Dec: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Dec was at the R0 level
with several C-class flares. Solar regions AR3161(N26W26, beta)
and AR3163(S20E68, beta) produced C class flare activity, with
the largest event a C5.3 at 10/1044UT from AR3163. The largest
solar region on disk AR3153(S17W47, beta-gamma) has yet to produce
any significant flare activity. A small isolated equatorial coronal
hole is visible at the centre of the solar disk. CME activity
was observed in LASCO C2 directed northwest from 10/0248UT. This
CME was faint but may possibly be correlated to on disk activity
evident in GONG H-alpha imagery located at around N28W18 at 10/0123UT
and at N20W10 at 10/0256UT, though this on disk activity is before
and after the CME is first visible in LASCO imagery suggesting
these events are not CME related. A model run was conducted assuming
a frontside location with results suggesting a weak glancing
blow may arrive during late 12-Dec to early 13-Dec. However,
frontside location is not certain and CME analysis confidence
is low due to the lack of available STEREO-A imagery to help
confirm solar longitude. A brighter CME directed northeast was
observed from 10/1512UT, however this event is considered to
be far side activity. The solar wind speed on 10-Dec overall
slowly declined, ranging from 544 to 423km/s, and is currently
near 460 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 9 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+7 to -8 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to
decline towards background levels over 11-12 Dec as coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects wane. The small coronal hole may
cause a very minor increase in wind speed in a few days time.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 32121222
Cocos Island 4 21121121
Darwin - --------
Townsville 8 32121232
Learmonth 7 32121222
Alice Springs 6 32121122
Gingin 6 31121222
Canberra 6 22121222
Hobart 8 32131222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Dec :
Macquarie Island 7 32131221
Casey 24 45542332
Mawson 27 54332363
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Dec :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 4113 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Dec 6 G0
12 Dec 6 G0
13 Dec 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 10-Dec. Periods of G1 were observed at Casey, with
a period of G1 and G2 were observed at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 11-13 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal Normal Fair-normal
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 11-13
Dec, with mildly degraded conditions possible at middle to high
latitudes on 11-Dec. Isolated minor fadeouts possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Dec 97
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-35%.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 77
Dec 70
Jan 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Dec 65 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
12 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
13 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 99 was issued on
9 December and is current for 10-12 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 10-Dec were near predicted
monthly values to 35% enhanced. Sporadic E was frequently observed.
Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs
are expected to be generally near predicted monthly values, with
15% depressions possible for southern Australian region after
local dawn. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Dec
Speed: 528 km/sec Density: 9.9 p/cc Temp: 327000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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