[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 December 22 issued 2331 UT on 09 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 10 10:31:43 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 DECEMBER - 12 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Dec: 149/104
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 9-Dec was at the R0 level with
several C-class flares. The largest flare of the day was a C6
flare produced by an active region on the east limb at 9/1413UT,
which is expected to rotate onto the solar disk over the coming
days. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk and one unnumbered region. AR3157 (N19W07, beta) showed
sunspot development over the 24 hour period. AR3153 (S17W32,
beta) remains the largest and most significant sunspot region
on the solar disk, however it has yet to produce any significant
flaring activity, has decreased in magnetic complexity and exhibited
trailer spot decay over the UT day. The unnumbered region is
at around S17E77 and appears stable. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 10-12 Dec. No Earth directed CMEs
were observed. An east directed CME was observed in LASCO C2
and STEREO-A imagery from 9/1509UT. A concurrent eruption from
the eastern limb from 09/1401UT was observed in GOES SUVI and
SDO imagery, associated with the largest flare of the day, a
C6 at 9/1413UT. Modelling showed this CME has no earth directed
component. Several other CMEs were observed, but none are considered
geoeffective. A slow filament liftoff is visible from 9/0401UT
in H-alpha and SDO imagery at around S18E24. No associated CME
is visible in available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed
on 9-Dec decreased slightly, ranging from 557 to 488 km/s, and
is currently near 520 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +7 to -6 nT. The elevated solar wind speed is
due to waning, but ongoing, high speed wind stream effects from
an equatorial coronal hole. The solar wind speed is expected
to continue to decline towards background levels over 10-12 Dec
as coronal hole high speed wind stream effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 09 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 22231222
Cocos Island 4 21121111
Darwin - --------
Townsville 9 32232222
Learmonth 9 32232222
Alice Springs 7 22231122
Gingin 7 22231221
Canberra 7 22231222
Hobart 8 22331221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Dec :
Macquarie Island 15 32262111
Casey 34 56643223
Mawson 22 53443333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Dec :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 1221 1024
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Dec 8 G0, slight chance of G1
11 Dec 6 G0
12 Dec 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 9-Dec. Isolated periods of G1 were observed at Casey
and Mawson, whilst periods of G2 were observed at Casey and Macquarie
Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 10-12 Dec,
with a slight chance of G1 on 10-Dec due to waning, but ongoing,
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 10-12
Dec, with a chance of mildly degraded conditions on 10-Dec due
to waning, but ongoing, coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Dec 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 77
Dec 70
Jan 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Dec 80 Near predicted monthly values
11 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values
12 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 9-Dec were near predicted monthly values with
depressions of up to 15% in the northern Australian region during
local day and enhancements of up to 20% in the southern Australian
region during local night. Significant sporadic E was observed
across the Australian region, mostly impacting lower frequencies.
MUFs are expected to be generally near predicted monthly values
over 10-12 Dec with mild depressions possible on 10-Dec due to
waning, but ongoing, coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
Sporadic E can also be expected across the Australian region
primarily affecting lower frequencies. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Dec
Speed: 532 km/sec Density: 11.5 p/cc Temp: 297000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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