[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 December 22 issued 2331 UT on 08 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 9 10:31:27 EST 2022


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Dec:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Dec: 143/97


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Dec             10 Dec             11 Dec
Activity     R0-R1              R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 8-Dec was at the R0 level. 
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk 
and one unnumbered region. AR3157 (N18E06, beta) and AR3161 (N26W01,beta) 
showed sunspot development over the 24 hour period. AR3153 (S17W19, 
beta-gamma-delta) remains the largest and most significant sunspot 
region on the solar disk, however it has yet to produce any significant 
flaring activity and appears stable. The unnumbered region is 
at around S12E73, has alpha magnetic characteristics and appears 
stable. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 
9-11 Dec. No Earth directed CMEs were observed. Several CMEs 
were observed over the UT day, including a slow southwest CME, 
visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A imagery from 8/0838UT. This 
CME is associated with a slow prominence liftoff visible in SDO 
and GOES SUVI imagery from 8/0108UT. Modelling indicates this 
CME has no Earth directed component. Another CME was observed 
erupting in a southeast direction, visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A 
imagery from 8/1712UT. An associated far-side eruption is visible 
in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery from 8/1659UT. Modelling indicates 
this CME has no Earth directed component. The solar wind speed 
on 8-Dec increased from 462 to 610 km/s, and is currently near 
560 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, 
Bt) was 12 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was 
+11 to -7 nT. A sustained period of -Bz was observed from 8/0245UT 
to 8/0420UT and another sustained period of -Bz is currently 
ongoing, having begun at 8/2110UT. The elevated solar wind speed 
and IMF magnitude are due to ongoing high speed wind stream effects 
from an equatorial coronal hole. The solar wind speed is expected 
to remain elevated over 9-10 Dec, with a decline possible over 
10-11 Dec as coronal hole high speed wind stream effects wane.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Dec: G0

Estimated Indices 08 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22221223
      Cocos Island         5   21211212
      Darwin               -   --------
      Townsville           9   32222223
      Learmonth            8   32222222
      Alice Springs        8   22222223
      Gingin               6   22221222
      Canberra             6   22211123
      Hobart               7   32211123    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     8   23211133
      Casey               31   55643233
      Mawson              18   33432235

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Dec : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart              21   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             17   1103 5533     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Dec    10    G0, chance of G1
10 Dec     8    G0, chance of G1
11 Dec     6    G0

COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 57 was issued on 3 December 
and is current for 7-9 Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on 8-Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions 
were observed in the Antarctic region, with the exception of 
Casey, where two periods of G1 and a period of G2 conditions 
were observed. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 9-11 
Dec, with a chance of G1 due to ongoing coronal hole high speed 
wind stream effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 9-11 
Dec, with a chance of mildly degraded conditions over 9-10 Dec 
due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. Shortwave 
fadeouts are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Dec    73

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      77
Dec      70
Jan      70

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Dec    70    Near predicted monthly values
10 Dec    70    Near predicted monthly values
11 Dec    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 97 was issued 
on 6 December and is current for 7-9 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 8-Dec were near predicted 
monthly values with some mild depressions observed in the eastern 
Australian region during local day. Spread F was observed at 
Hobart during local night hours. Significant sporadic E was observed 
across the Australian region, mostly impacting lower frequencies 
during local night. MUFs are expected to be generally near predicted 
monthly values over 9-11 Dec with mild depressions possible over 
9-10 Dec for the southern Australian region due to ongoing coronal 
hole high speed wind stream effects. Sporadic E can also be expected 
across the Australian region during local night hours. Shortwave 
fadeouts are possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Dec
Speed: 360 km/sec  Density:   14.4 p/cc  Temp:    27700 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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