[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 December 22 issued 2331 UT on 08 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 9 10:31:27 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Dec: 143/97
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 8-Dec was at the R0 level.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk
and one unnumbered region. AR3157 (N18E06, beta) and AR3161 (N26W01,beta)
showed sunspot development over the 24 hour period. AR3153 (S17W19,
beta-gamma-delta) remains the largest and most significant sunspot
region on the solar disk, however it has yet to produce any significant
flaring activity and appears stable. The unnumbered region is
at around S12E73, has alpha magnetic characteristics and appears
stable. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over
9-11 Dec. No Earth directed CMEs were observed. Several CMEs
were observed over the UT day, including a slow southwest CME,
visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A imagery from 8/0838UT. This
CME is associated with a slow prominence liftoff visible in SDO
and GOES SUVI imagery from 8/0108UT. Modelling indicates this
CME has no Earth directed component. Another CME was observed
erupting in a southeast direction, visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A
imagery from 8/1712UT. An associated far-side eruption is visible
in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery from 8/1659UT. Modelling indicates
this CME has no Earth directed component. The solar wind speed
on 8-Dec increased from 462 to 610 km/s, and is currently near
560 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 12 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+11 to -7 nT. A sustained period of -Bz was observed from 8/0245UT
to 8/0420UT and another sustained period of -Bz is currently
ongoing, having begun at 8/2110UT. The elevated solar wind speed
and IMF magnitude are due to ongoing high speed wind stream effects
from an equatorial coronal hole. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated over 9-10 Dec, with a decline possible over
10-11 Dec as coronal hole high speed wind stream effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 22221223
Cocos Island 5 21211212
Darwin - --------
Townsville 9 32222223
Learmonth 8 32222222
Alice Springs 8 22222223
Gingin 6 22221222
Canberra 6 22211123
Hobart 7 32211123
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Dec :
Macquarie Island 8 23211133
Casey 31 55643233
Mawson 18 33432235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Dec :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 17 1103 5533
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Dec 10 G0, chance of G1
10 Dec 8 G0, chance of G1
11 Dec 6 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 57 was issued on 3 December
and is current for 7-9 Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on 8-Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with the exception of
Casey, where two periods of G1 and a period of G2 conditions
were observed. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 9-11
Dec, with a chance of G1 due to ongoing coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 9-11
Dec, with a chance of mildly degraded conditions over 9-10 Dec
due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Dec 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 77
Dec 70
Jan 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
10 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
11 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 97 was issued
on 6 December and is current for 7-9 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 8-Dec were near predicted
monthly values with some mild depressions observed in the eastern
Australian region during local day. Spread F was observed at
Hobart during local night hours. Significant sporadic E was observed
across the Australian region, mostly impacting lower frequencies
during local night. MUFs are expected to be generally near predicted
monthly values over 9-11 Dec with mild depressions possible over
9-10 Dec for the southern Australian region due to ongoing coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects. Sporadic E can also be expected
across the Australian region during local night hours. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Dec
Speed: 360 km/sec Density: 14.4 p/cc Temp: 27700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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