[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 December 22 issued 2331 UT on 07 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 8 10:31:24 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Dec: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Dec was at the R0 level.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk.
Solar region AR3157 (N18E20, beta) produced three C class flares,
the largest a C5.8 at 07/1304UT. This region has shown some development
in its trailer spots and may be showing a slight increase in
magnetic complexity. The largest region currently on the solar
disk AR3153(S17W03, beta), initially showed a decline in its
intermediate spots, later in the UT day some minor redevelopment
of intermediate spots was evident in an arc around the large
leader spot, with perhaps a slight increase in magnetic complexity
evident, though this region has yet to produce any significant
flare activity. Other sunspot regions were relatively stable.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0-R1 levels over 08-10
Dec. No Earth directed CMEs were observed. An apparent very slow
moving narrow CME was observed over an extended period 06/2100-07/1400UT
in LASCO C2 and in STEREO-A imagery from 07/0423UT, directed
predominately southward and slightly to the east, steeply out
of the ecliptic plane. The CME could not be correlated to any
on disk activity. The solar wind speed on 07-Dec increased from
311 to 497 km/s, and is currently near 488 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 21 nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +17 to -14 nT. An interval of southward
IMF conditions was observed 07/0920-1550UT. Solar wind conditions
are elevated due to a solar coronal hole and the wind speed is
expected to be elevated over the interval 08-09 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Dec : A K
Australian Region 10 10024333
Cocos Island 8 01123332
Darwin - --------
Townsville 10 21033333
Learmonth 11 11034333
Alice Springs 7 00023332
Gingin 10 10024333
Canberra 11 10034333
Hobart 8 00024332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Dec :
Macquarie Island 22 00045632
Casey 15 13334333
Mawson 22 32243535
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Dec :
Darwin NA
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0100 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Dec 18 G0, isolated G1 periods possible
09 Dec 16 G0, isolated G1 periods possible
10 Dec 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 57 was issued on 3 December
and is current for 7-9 Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on 07-Dec, with mildly elevated geomagnetic
activity associated with the Earth's entry into a coronal hole
wind stream. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region on 07-Dec, with a period of G1 and G2 observed at Macquarie
Island and two isolated periods of G1 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are generally expected over 08-09 Dec, with isolated
G1 periods possible due to continuing high speed wind stream
effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
09 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions are expected during 08-09
Dec for middle to high latitudes particularly during local night
hours, due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. Isolated
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Dec 101
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 15-20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed 20% to enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 77
Dec 70
Jan 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Dec 70 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
09 Dec 70 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
10 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 97 was issued
on 6 December and is current for 7-9 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 07-Dec were generally
near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced, with strong enhancements
observed at Cocos Island. MUFs have been quite variable after
local dawn this morning with some sites 20% enhanced whilst others
15% depressed. The regional ionosphere appears to have shown
an unexpected positive response to the onset of mild geomagnetic
activity associated with the Earth's entry into a coronal hole
wind stream. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night
hours. Occasional blanketing sporadic E was observed at some
sites. The ionosphere at Darwin and Townsville appeared briefly
disturbed after local dawn this morning. MUFs are expected to
be generally near predicted monthly values with depressions of
15% possible over 08-09 Dec for the southern Australian region
due to a mild increase in geomagnetic activity expected during
this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Dec
Speed: 396 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 100000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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