[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 December 22 issued 2331 UT on 06 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 7 10:31:06 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 DECEMBER - 09 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Dec: 144/98
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Dec was at the R0 level.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk,
with two new small regions in the northeast solar quadrant. The
largest solar region on the disk AR3153(S17E10, beta) has been
flare quiet. All other sunspot regions were also quiet with no
C class flares observed. Solar activity is expected to be at
the R0-R1 levels over 07-09 Dec. No Earth directed CMEs were
observed. A small section of filament appeared to lift off the
solar disk during the interval 06/00-03UT located at N15E05 (GONG
H-alpha) but no CME appeared to have followed. The solar wind
speed on 06-Dec declined from 450 to 331 km/s, and is currently
near 330 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 5 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+2 to -4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to show an increase
from mid to late 07-Dec due to high speed wind stream effects
from an equatorial coronal hole now located in the western solar
hemisphere. The wind speed is expected to be elevated on 08-09
Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11012010
Cocos Island 1 02001000
Darwin - --------
Townsville 3 12112011
Learmonth 2 11012010
Alice Springs 1 11011001
Gingin 2 11012010
Canberra 2 01012001
Hobart 3 12112010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 01012010
Casey 13 25422121
Mawson 11 23223242
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Dec :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1121 3211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Dec 14 G0, chance of G1 periods
08 Dec 18 G0, with isolated G1 periods
09 Dec 16 G0, with isolated G1 periods
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 57 was issued on 3 December
and is current for 07-09 Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on 06-Dec. Mostly G0 conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region on 06-Dec, with an isolated
period of G1 at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 07-09 Dec, with isolated G1 periods possible due to high
speed wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal hole. There
is a chance for a possible weak glancing blow on 07-Dec from
a CME first observed on 04-Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
09 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Normal to mildly degraded conditions are expected during
07-09 Dec due to a combination of coronal hole high speed wind
stream effects and a possible weak glancing blow from a CME which
may arrive on 07-Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Dec 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 77
Dec 70
Jan 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
08 Dec 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
09 Dec 60 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 96 was issued on
5 December and is current for 5-7 Dec. ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications
Warning 97 was issued on 6 December and is current for 7-9 Dec.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on
UT day 06-Dec were near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
MUFs are expected to be generally near predicted monthly values
over 07-09 Dec, with mild depressions of 15% possible over 08-09
Dec for the southern Australian region due to an anticipated
mild increase in geomagnetic activity during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Dec
Speed: 488 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 248000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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