[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 December 22 issued 2332 UT on 05 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 6 10:32:11 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 DECEMBER - 08 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Dec: 150/105
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 5-Dec was at the R0 level with
several C-class flares. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. AR3158 (N26W03, beta) showed spot
development over the 24-hour period whilst AR3153 (S17E18, beta)
showed development of trailer spots. AR3153 remains the largest
and most significant sunspot region, however it is not particularly
magnetically complex and has not produced any M-class or higher
flares. All other sunspot regions were either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0-R1 levels over 6-8
Dec. No Earth directed CMEs were observed. A slow filament lift
off was observed in H-alpha imagery from 5/1444UT at around N20E10.
No associated CME is visible in available coronagraph imagery.
The solar wind speed on 5-Dec declined varying between 541 to
430 km/s, and is currently near 430 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -4. The solar wind speed is expected to
continue to decline on 6-Dec until an increase occurs due to
high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal hole
rotating towards a geoeffective position, this is expected to
occur over 6-7 Dec. The wind speed is expected to be elevated
on 8-Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 11223111
Cocos Island 4 01223010
Darwin - --------
Townsville 5 11213111
Learmonth 5 11223111
Alice Springs 4 01223011
Gingin 5 01223121
Canberra 5 11223111
Hobart 5 12223110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Dec :
Macquarie Island 12 02335310
Casey 15 35423121
Mawson 16 24434322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Dec :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 17 1112 3454
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Dec 10 G0
07 Dec 18 G0, chance of G1
08 Dec 16 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 57 was issued on 3 December
and is current for 7-9 Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on 5-Dec. Mostly G0 conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region on 5-Dec, with isolated periods
of G1 at Macquarie Island and Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 6-8 Dec, with a chance of G1 on 7-8 Dec due
to high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal
hole currently rotating towards a geoeffective position, combined
with a possible glancing blow on 7-Dec from a CME first observed
on 4-Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 6
Dec. Normal to mildly degraded conditions are expected on 7-8
Dec due to a combination of coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects and a possible glancing blow from a CME first observed
on 4-Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Dec 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 77
Dec 70
Jan 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Dec 80 Near predicted monthly values
07 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
08 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 96 was issued on
5 December and is current for 5-7 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the northern Australian region on UT day 5-Dec were
near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced and near predicted
monthly values in the southern Australian region. Significant
amounts of sporadic E were observed across the eastern and central
Australian regions. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 6-8 Dec, with a chance of mild depressions over 7-8
Dec due to a combination of coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects and a possible glancing blow on 7-Dec from a CME first
observed on 4-Dec. Further significant sporadic E is expected
across the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Dec
Speed: 513 km/sec Density: 10.5 p/cc Temp: 323000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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