[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 December 22 issued 2330 UT on 04 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 5 10:30:54 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 DECEMBER - 07 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Dec: 144/98
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 143/97
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 4-Dec was at the R0 level with
several C-class flares. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. AR3155 (N22W21, beta) and AR3158 (N26E11.
alpha) showed spot development over the 24-hour period whilst
AR3153 (S17E31, beta) showed some trailer spot development. All
other sunspot regions were stable. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R0-R1 levels over 5-7 Dec. An east directed CME
was observed in LASCO C2 imagery from 4/0125UT. This CME is possibly
associated with a filament eruption visible on the disk from
3/2357UT in H-alpha and SDO imagery at around N35E27. Modelling
indicates there is a chance that this CME will impact Earth with
a glancing blow at 7/0300UT (+/- 12 hours). The solar wind speed
on 4-Dec remained elevated varying between 544 to 482 km/s, and
is currently near 510 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -7. A sustained period of -Bz was observed
from 4/1230UT to 4/1645UT. The elevated solar wind speed and
sustained -Bz period may be due to a glancing blow from a CME
first observed on 1-Dec. The solar wind speed is expected to
decline over 5-Dec due to waning coronal hole high speed wind
stream effects. An increase is expected over 6-7 Dec due to high
speed wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal hole rotating
towards a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Dec : A K
Australian Region 9 22123332
Cocos Island 7 12112332
Darwin 4 -1121---
Townsville 10 22123333
Learmonth 12 22223433
Alice Springs 9 22123332
Gingin 13 22123443
Canberra 8 22122332
Hobart 9 12223332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Dec :
Macquarie Island 22 22135632
Casey 22 35333443
Mawson 62 43234874
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2322 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Dec 5 G0
06 Dec 10 G0, chance of G1
07 Dec 15 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 57 was issued on 3 December
and is current for 7-9 Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 4-Dec. Isolated periods of
G1 were observed at Casey and Macquarie Island, with a period
of G2 also observed at Macquarie Island. Periods of G3 and G4
geomagnetic conditions were observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 5 Dec. G0 conditions are expected
on 6-Dec with a chance of G1, due to high speed wind stream effects
from a coronal hole rotating towards a geoeffective position.
G0-G1 conditions are expected on 7-Dec due to a combination of
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects and a possible glancing
blow from a CME first observed on 4-Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 5-6
Dec although there is a chance of mild degradations on 6-Dec
due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. Normal to
mildly degraded conditions are expected on 7-Dec due to a combination
of coronal hole high speed wind stream effects and a possible
glancing blow from a CME first observed on 4-Dec. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Dec 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 77
Dec 70
Jan 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Dec 80 Near predicted monthly values
06 Dec 80 Near predicted monthly values
07 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the northern Australian
region on UT day 4-Dec were near predicted monthly values to
15% enhanced and near predicted monthly values in the southern
Australian region. Significant amounts of sporadic E were observed
across the Australian region during local night. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 5-7 Dec, with a chance
of mild depressions on 6-Dec due to coronal hole high speed wind
streams effects and a a chance of mild depressions on 7-Dec due
to a combination of coronal hole high speed wind stream effects
and a possible glancing blow from a CME first observed on 4-Dec.
Further significant sporadic E can be expected across the Australian
region, particularly during local night.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Dec
Speed: 565 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 173000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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