[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 December 22 issued 2331 UT on 03 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 4 10:31:17 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 DECEMBER - 06 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Dec: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 1741UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Dec: 134/88
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 3-Dec was at the R1 level with
an M1.3 flare produced at 3/1741UT from an unnamed active region
rotating over the eastern limb, currently at around N16E75. There
are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3155
(N22W08, beta) showed spot development and AR3156 (N27E57, beta)
showed trailer spot development over the UT day. AR3153 (S17E44,
beta) is the largest sunspot region, however it remained stable
over the 24-hour period. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. There are 2 unnumbered regions on the solar
disk. One at N16E75 with alpha magnetic classification which
was responsible for the M1.2 flare today and is currently stable.
The other is at around N25E21, has beta magnetic classification
and showed spot development over the UT day. Solar activity is
expected to be at the R0-R1 level over 4-6 Dec. No Earth directed
CMEs have been observed. An eruption is visible in SDO imagery
from 3/1748UT at around N20E85, associated with the M1.2 flare.
An associated CME is visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A imagery
from 3/1812UT. Modelling indicates that this CME is not geoeffective.
Several smaller CMEs were observed, none of which are considered
geoeffective. The solar wind speed on 3-Dec varied between 639
to 478 km/s, and is currently near 520 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +4 to -4. The solar wind speed is expected to
continue to decline over 4-5 Dec due to waning coronal hole high
speed wind stream effects. An increase is expected from 6-Dec
due to high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal
hole rotating towards a geoeffective position. A jump in solar
wind speed is possible on 4-Dec due to a possible glancing blow
from a CME first observed on 1-Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 22232212
Cocos Island 5 21121311
Darwin 7 22------
Townsville 7 22231212
Learmonth 9 32232222
Alice Springs 7 22132212
Gingin 8 22132312
Canberra 7 12232212
Hobart 7 22232212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Dec :
Macquarie Island 18 33263211
Casey 21 55432322
Mawson 28 45422355
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15 3433 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Dec 12 G0, chance of G1
05 Dec 5 G0
06 Dec 12 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 57 was issued on 3 December
and is current for 7-9 Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 3-Dec. G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed at Casey and Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed at Macquarie Island, with an isolated period of
G2. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 4-5 Dec, with
a chance of G1 on 4-Dec, due to the possibility of a glancing
blow from a CME first observed on 1-Dec. G0 conditions are expected
on 6-Dec with a chance of G1, due to high speed wind stream effects
from a coronal hole rotating towards a geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 4-6
Dec although there is a chance of mild degradations on 4-Dec
and 6-Dec due to a possible glancing blow from a CME on 4-Dec
and coronal hole high speed wind stream effects on 6-Dec. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Dec 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 77
Dec 70
Jan 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
05 Dec 75 Near predicted monthly values
06 Dec 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 95 was issued on
2 December and is current for 2-4 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 3-Dec were near predicted
monthly values with some mild depressions in the southern Australian
region at the start of the UT day. Significant amounts of sporadic
E were observed across the Australian region during local night.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 4-6
Dec, with a chance of mild depressions on 4-Dec and 6-Dec due
to a possible glancing blow from a CME on 4-Dec and high speed
wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal hole on 6-Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Dec
Speed: 594 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 308000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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