[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 December 22 issued 2331 UT on 02 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 3 10:31:26 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 DECEMBER - 05 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Dec: 124/77
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Dec was at the R0 level
with several C class flares observed, the largest of which was
a C8.1 flare at 02/0920UT from a new region AR3156(N27E72, beta)
rotating onto the solar disk over the northeast limb. The other
new region in the solar southeast quadrant, AR3153(S17E59, beta)
also produced C class flare activity. This relatively large solar
region is currently the largest on the solar disk. There are
currently 5 numbered regions on the solar disk, and the other
solar regions were mostly quiet. Solar activity is expected to
be at the R0-R1 level, with the chance of R2 flare activity over
03-05 Dec if magnetic complexity develops in either AR3156 or
AR3153. No Earth directed CMEs have been observed. A small solar
filament located at N35W40 erupted at 02/1231UT (GONG Halpha).
A very narrow steep northwest directed CME appeared to follow
in LASCO C2 at 02/1325UT. Event modelling shows this CME as not
geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 02-Dec varied between
700 to 510km/s, and is currently near 600 km/s, though the data
is very noisy and may not be currently indicative. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -4, with frequent mild southward
fluctuations observed over the UT day. The solar wind speed which
is elevated due to a coronal hole wind stream and is expected
to gradually decline. Another equatorial coronal hole is visible
in the eastern solar hemisphere which may increase solar wind
speed after 07-Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Dec : A K
Australian Region 11 23332322
Cocos Island 8 22222322
Darwin 10 23322322
Townsville 12 23332332
Learmonth 14 33333422
Alice Springs 10 23322322
Gingin 12 32332422
Canberra 11 23332322
Hobart 12 23333322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Dec :
Macquarie Island 20 33553321
Casey 35 56543443
Mawson 42 45444664
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 25 2544 4443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Dec 14 G0, slight chance of G1 late in the UT day.
04 Dec 12 G0, slight chance of G1 early in UT day.
05 Dec 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 02-Dec. G1-G2 geomagnetic periods were observed
in the Antarctic region. Generally G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 03-05 Dec as induced activity from a coronal
hole wind stream declines. A glancing blow from a CME associated
with a recent M1 flare, may produce a mild increase in geomagnetic
activity from late on 03-Dec to early 04-Dec though arrival confidence
is low.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 Dec Normal Normal Fair-normal
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected for middle to
high latitudes on 03-Dec and possibly early on 04-dec, then conditions
are expected to improve.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Dec 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25-40%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25-50%.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 77
Dec 70
Jan 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Dec 35 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
04 Dec 50 Depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
05 Dec 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 93 was issued on 30
November and is current for 1-3 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 02-Dec were variable.
Strong MUF enhancements were observed at Niue and strong depressions
were observed at Cocos Island. Northern region Australia MUFs
were depressed early in the UT day. The low latitude ionospheric
variation is not considered associated with the current mild
geomagnetic activity. Western Australian region MUFs (Perth/Learmonth)
were also depressed. South east Australian MUFs were mildly enhanced
during the local day yesterday. Some sites are again showing
depressed conditions of 15-20% at times after local dawn this
morning. Further degraded HF conditions may be experienced during
local night hours on 03-Dec for the southern Australian region
as coronal hole wind stream induced geomagnetic activity declines.
There is a chance for weak CME induced geomagnetic activity late
on 03-Nov. Frequencies of ionospheric support are now expected
to return to near normal from 05-Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Dec
Speed: 565 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 293000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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