[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 December 22 issued 2332 UT on 01 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 2 10:32:35 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Dec: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0721UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Dec: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-Dec was at the R1 level
due to an isolated M1.1 flare from AR3152(N23W38, beta). There
are currently four numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk, with a new yet to be numbered spot group rotating onto
the solar disk at solar latitude N25. Solar region AR3153(S17E70,
beta) which recently rotated onto the solar disk, is currently
the largest sunspot group on the visible disk with trailer spots
now evident, though this moderately sized region has so far only
produced very minor flare activity. For the new region rotating
over the northeast limb, only what appears to be a single, perhaps
leader spot, is just visible (using SDO imagery). Solar activity
is expected to be at the R0 level, with the chance of R1 flare
activity over 02-04 Dec. No significantly Earth directed CMEs
have been observed. The M1.1 flare was associated with a northwest
CME visible in LASCO C2 from 01/0748UT and event modelling shows
this event predominately as an Earth miss, with a glancing blow
possible late on 03-Dec. A northeast CME was observed in LASCO
C2 from 01/0012UT and a southeast CME was observed from 01/1636UT.
The northeast CME is considered a farside event. On disk plasma
motion is evident just to the northeast of solar region AR3153
at around 01/1600UT in SDO imagery, located near S10E70. Event
modelling was conducted for the southeast CME assuming this location
and results show an Earth miss. A minor very narrow north directed
CME was observed at 01/1100UT which is not considered significant.
The solar wind speed on UT day 01-Dec declined from 600 to 530
km/s, and is currently near 550 km/s, though the data is noisy.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12
nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +10 to -10,
with frequent southward fluctuations observed in the first half
of the UT day. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to
decline as effects from a coronal hole wind stream abate. The
equatorial coronal hole that produced this wind stream is now
well west of the solar central meridian. Another equatorial coronal
hole is visible in the eastern solar hemisphere.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 01 Dec : A K
Australian Region 17 24343333
Cocos Island 12 24233322
Darwin 15 24243323
Townsville 17 24343333
Learmonth 19 34344333
Alice Springs 18 25343323
Gingin 22 34345333
Canberra 15 24333333
Hobart 16 34333333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Dec :
Macquarie Island 33 35555433
Casey 57 67544644
Mawson 46 46455555
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 47 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 23 3324 4363
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Dec 18 G0, chance G1
03 Dec 16 G0, chance of G1 second half of UT day.
04 Dec 10 G0
COMMENT: Generally G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Australian region on UT day 01-Dec, with only an isolated
G1 period observed at two sites. Mostly G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period
of G3 observed at Casey. Generally G0 conditions with the chance
of an isolated G1 period are expected on 02-Dec. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 03-04 Dec as induced activity from
a coronal hole wind stream declines. A glancing blow from a recent
CME may produce a mild increase activity late on 03-Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected for middle to
high latitudes on 02-Dec, then improving as induced geomagnetic
activity from a coronal hole wind stream declines.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Dec 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20%-50%.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 77
Dec 70
Jan 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Dec 50 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
03 Dec 60 Depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
04 Dec 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 93 was issued on 30
November and is current for 1-3 Dec. ASWFC SWF HF Communications
Warning 94 was issued on 1 December and is current for 1-2 Dec.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 01-Dec were depressed
15-20% to near predicted monthly values. Strong MUF enhancements
were observed at Niue. Strong spread F was observed at Hobart
during local night hours. Isolated periods of strong sporadic
E were observed at some sites during the local day. MUFs are
generally expected to be mildly depressed to near monthly predicted
values for 02-03 Dec with an improving trend. Further degraded
HF conditions may be experienced during local night hours over
02-03 Dec for the southern Australian region as the recent mildly
enhanced geomagnetic conditions induced by a coronal hole wind
stream declines. Frequencies of ionospheric support are expected
to return to near normal from 04-Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Nov
Speed: 623 km/sec Density: 10.5 p/cc Temp: 463000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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