[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 November 22 issued 2330 UT on 30 Nov 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 1 10:30:55 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 NOVEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-Nov was at the R0 level
with multiple C-class flares. There is currently one numbered
sunspot region visible on the solar disk. AR3152 (N28W26, alpha)
showed trailer spot development over the UT day. Two unnumbered
region are visible, one at around N27W13 with alpha magnetic
characteristics, and one at around S35E08. Both unnumbered regions
showed spot development over the UT day. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R0 level over 1-3 Dec. No geoeffective CMEs were
observed. A disappearing filament occurred from 30/0652UT at
around S30W00, visible in H-alpha imagery. A faint southeast
directed CME is visible following the disappearing filament,
modelling indicates this CME is not geoeffective. A filament
lift-off occurred from 30/1954UT visible in H-alpha imagery at
around N40W25. No associated CME is visible in available imagery.
The solar wind speed on UT day 30-Nov increased, ranging from
566 to 758 km/s, and is currently near 590 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +9 to -9, with a period of sustained
negative Bz from 30/1655UT to 30/1823UT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain elevated over 1-3 Dec due to high speed
wind stream effects from a large equatorial coronal hole in a
geoeffective position. A decline in wind speed is possible on
3-Dec as coronal hole high speed wind stream effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 30 Nov : A K
Australian Region 18 33344243
Cocos Island 11 22233242
Darwin 15 33343233
Townsville 17 33344233
Learmonth 25 32255353
Alice Springs 20 23354243
Gingin 22 33354343
Canberra 14 23343233
Hobart 20 33353343
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Nov :
Macquarie Island 46 32276463
Casey 47 57644334
Mawson 32 45444454
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 43 (Unsettled)
Canberra 53 (Unsettled)
Hobart 79 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 26
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 25 4443 4542
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Dec 24 G0-G1
02 Dec 20 G0, chance of G1
03 Dec 16 G0, slight chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 56 was issued on 27 November
and is current for 30 Nov to 1 Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 30-Nov. G2 geomagnetic
conditions, with isolated periods of G3 were observed at Macquarie
Island and Casey. periods of G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
at Mawson. G0-G1 conditions are expected on 1-Dec, G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 2-3 Dec, with a chance of G1 due
to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Fair Fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected for middle to
high latitudes from 1-3 Dec due to ongoing coronal hole high
speed wind stream effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Nov 46
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 83
Nov 70
Dec 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Dec 35 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
02 Dec 40 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
03 Dec 45 Depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 92 was issued on 30
November and is current for 1-3 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 30-Nov were depressed by up tpo 25% in the Australian
region. Significant amounts of sporadic E were observed across
the Australian region on 30-Nov. MUFs are generally expected
to be mildly depressed over 1-2 Dec and near monthly predicted
values to mildly depressed on 3-Dec. Degraded HF conditions may
be experienced during local night hours on 1-3 Dec for the southern
Australian region due to mildly enhanced geomagnetic conditions
induced by coronal hole wind streams.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Nov
Speed: 574 km/sec Density: 10.0 p/cc Temp: 408000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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