[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 August 22 issued 2330 UT on 26 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 27 09:30:56 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 AUGUST 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 27 AUGUST - 29 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 25/2327UT possible lower West Pacific
M2.1 1055UT possible lower European
M7.2 1214UT probable lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Aug: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug
Activity R1, chance of R2 R0-R1,chance of R2 R0-R1,chance of R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 118/70 116/68
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-Aug was at the R2 level,
with several M-class flares. An impulsive M2.1 flare at 26/1055UT,
an M7.2 flare and an M5.3 flare at 26/1214UT and 26/1231UT respectively.
These were followed by three lower level M-class flares, an M3.6
flare at 26/1316UT, an M1.8 flare at 26/1433UT and an M1.1 flare
at 26/1522UT, it is difficult, however, to determine accurate
times for these flares due to the enhanced background X-Ray flux
from the earlier M7.2 and M5.3 flares. There are currently five
numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3088 (S19W58, beta)
and AR3089 (S23E46, beta), were responsible for all the M-class
flaring of the 24-hour period, with AR3089 responsible for the
M7.2 and M5.3 flares. Both areas showed spot development, as
did AR3086 (S22E03, beta). The other sunspot regions were either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1
level on 27-Aug, with a chance of R2. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 28-29 Aug, with a chance of R2. No
geoeffective CMEs were observed. A partial halo CME was observed
in LASCO and STEREO-A imagery from 26/1348UT, but is directed
too far to the west to have a geoeffective component. The solar
wind speed on 25-Aug was low, ranging between 378 and 317 km/s
and is currently near 330 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -4 nT. The solar wind is expected to remain
at background levels over 27-28 Aug, with the possibility of
an increase on 28-Aug. An increase in solar wind speed is expected
on 29-Aug due to high speed wind stream effects from a coronal
hole in the southern hemisphere that is currently on the central
meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 01100010
Cocos Island 1 11110010
Darwin 1 01100010
Townsville 2 11110012
Learmonth 2 01110020
Alice Springs 1 01100010
Gingin 1 01000020
Canberra 0 00100010
Hobart 1 01100011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 23310021
Mawson 7 31110133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1011 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Aug 5 Quiet
28 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Aug 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 26-Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 27-29 Aug, with the possibility of unsettled
geomagnetic conditions on 29-Aug due to coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Fair Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions are expected on 27-Aug,
particularly during local night hours. Normal HF conditions are
expected over 28-29 Aug, with mildly degraded conditions possible,
particularly during local night hours. Shortwave fadeouts are
probable over 27-29 Aug,
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Aug 46
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 65
Aug 67
Sep 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Aug 50 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
28 Aug 50 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
29 Aug 50 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 63 was issued on 25
August and is current for 26-27 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 26-Aug were near predicted monthly values to
15% depressed during the 24-hour period. Spread-F was observed
at Hobart, Brisbane and Townsville during local night hours.
Regional MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values to 15% depressed on 27-29.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Aug
Speed: 356 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 11600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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