[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 25 August 22 issued 2330 UT on 25 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 26 09:30:50 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 AUGUST 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 26 AUGUST - 28 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.8 1951UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Aug: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Aug 27 Aug 28 Aug
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 25-Aug was at the R1 level,
with an M1.8 flare from AR3088 (S20W43, beta) at 25/1950UT. There
are currently five numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk
and two unnumbered regions. AR3088, which is the largest region,
and AR3089 (S23W62, beta) have grown while all other regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0-R1 levels over 26-28 Aug. A partial halo CME was observed
in LASCO and STEREO-A imagery from 25/0236UT, but is considered
a farside event. No other CMEs were observed. The solar wind
speed was on a mild decline over 25-Aug, and is currently near
350 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 6 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was+4
to -4 nT. The solar wind is expected to stay near background
levels over 26-28 Aug, possibly increasing by the end of the
period due to a coronal hole in the southern hemisphere.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 25 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11101001
Cocos Island 1 01111000
Darwin 2 11111001
Townsville 3 11111012
Learmonth 1 11101000
Alice Springs 1 01101000
Gingin 0 00101000
Canberra 0 00001001
Hobart 0 10001000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 6 32311101
Mawson 10 32220005
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1011 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Aug 8 G0
27 Aug 8 G0
28 Aug 16 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 25-Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 26-28 Aug, with the possibility of unsettled
geomagnetic conditions by the end of the period due to coronal
hole high speed wind streams.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions are possible on 26-Aug,
particularly during local night hours. Normal HF conditions are
expected over 27-28 Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Aug 45
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 65
Aug 67
Sep 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
27 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
28 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 25-Aug were
near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed during local night
hours. Spread-F was observed at Brisbane and Townsville during
local night hours. Sporadic E was observed at the Cocos Islands
and northern Australian regions. Regional MUFs are expected to
be mostly near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed on 26-Aug
and mostly near predicted monthly values over 27-28 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Aug
Speed: 412 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 68000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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