[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 August 22 issued 2330 UT on 24 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 25 09:30:51 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 AUGUST 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Aug 26 Aug 27 Aug
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 108/58
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-Aug was at the R0 level,
with B-class flaring only. There are currently three numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk and one unnumbered region.
AR3085 (N32W22, beta) has been unstable, and the unnumbered region
near S30W30 has shown rapid growth, but is not yet magnetically
categorised. All other regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 25-27 Aug.
No geoeffective CMEs have been observed. The solar wind declined
over 24-Aug, ranging from 457 to 351 km/s, and is currently near
390 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+5 to -1 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to stay near background
levels over 25-27 Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 24 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11100000
Darwin 1 11100000
Learmonth 2 21110100
Alice Springs 0 01000000
Gingin 0 10100000
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 1 11000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 6 33310101
Mawson 5 32110013
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6 1101 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Aug 8 G0
26 Aug 8 G0
27 Aug 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 24-Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions
was expected over 25-27 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Fair-poor Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are possible over 25-26 Aug,
particularly during local night hours. Normal HF conditions are
expected on 27-Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Aug 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 65
Aug 67
Sep 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Aug 45 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
26 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values
27 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 62 was issued on 23 August
and is current for 24-25 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
on UT day 24-Aug were near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
Spread-F was observed at Brisbane and Townsville during local
night hours. Sporadic E was observed at the Cocos Islands. Regional
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
to 15% depressed on 25-Aug and mostly near predicted monthly
values over 26-27 Aug, as the effects from recent CMEs subside.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Aug
Speed: 471 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 212000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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