[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 27 August 22 issued 2330 UT on 27 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 28 09:30:51 EST 2022


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 AUGUST 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 28 AUGUST - 30 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M4.8    0236UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.2    1138UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.1    1525UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.8    1559UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.1    1649UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Aug: 128/81


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Aug             29 Aug             30 Aug
Activity     R1, chance of R2	R0-R1,chance of R2 R0-R1,chance of R2
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             122/75             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27-Aug was at the R1 level, 
with several M-class flares. A long duration M4.8 flare at 27/0242UT, 
an impulsive M1.3 flare at 27/0410UT, an impulsive M1.2 flare 
at 27/1138UT, an impulsive M1.1 flare at 27/1525UT, a long duration 
M1.8 flare at 27/1558UT and an M1.0 flare at 27/1640UT. An S1 
level proton event was observed from 27/1150UT to 27/2045UT, 
likely due to the long duration M4.8 flare. There are currently 
five numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3088 (S19W71, 
beta) and AR3089 (S23E33, beta) showed spot development over 
the 24-hour period. AR3088 was responsible for almost all of 
the M-class flares on 27-Aug, including the M4.8 flare. AR3085 
(N30W61, beta) was responsible for the M1.3 flare. The other 
sunspot regions were either stable or in decay. Solar activity 
is expected to be at the R1 level on 28-Aug, with a chance of 
R2. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 29-30 
Aug, with a chance of R2. A west directed CME was observed in 
LASCO and STEREO-A imagery from 27/0223UT. An eruption is visible 
in H-alpha and SDO AIA imagery from 27/0146UT associated with 
the beginning of the long duration M4.8 flare from AR3088. Modelling 
indicates that there is a chance of a glancing impact on 29/1100UT 
+/- 12 hours. No other geoeffective CMEs were observed. A filament 
eruption is visible in H-alpha, SDO AIA and GOES SUVI imagery 
from 27/1807UT at around S10E20. No CME is visible in currently 
available imagery, further analysis will be performed when more 
imagery becomes available. The solar wind speed on 27-Aug increased, 
ranging between 300 and 439 km/s and is currently near 430 km/s. 
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 14 
nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +12 to -11 
nT. There were two sustained periods of -Bz over the UT day, 
one from 27/0824UT to 27/1222UT and one from 27/1635UT to 27/1834UT. 
The solar wind is expected to continue to increase over 28-30 
Aug, due to the combined effects of a possible glancing blow 
from a CME first observed on 27-Aug and high speed wind streams 
from a small coronal hole currently in a geoeffective position 
and a large coronal hole in the southern hemisphere which is 
expected to rotate into a geoeffective position by 29-Aug.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Aug: G0

Estimated Indices 27 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   11133132
      Cocos Island         5   11122122
      Darwin               8   11133132
      Townsville           9   12133232
      Learmonth            8   21133132
      Alice Springs        8   02133132
      Gingin               7   20123132
      Canberra             8   11133132
      Hobart               8   11133132    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    13   00045322
      Casey               16   34333333
      Mawson              19   43223245

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               7   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1110 0122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Aug    15    G0
29 Aug    20    G0-G1, chance of G2
30 Aug    10    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 27-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in the Antarctic region on UT day 27-Aug, with an isolated 
period of G1 at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions are 
expected on 28-Aug, with a possibility of unsettled conditions 
due to the ongoing effects of a coronal hole high speed wind 
stream. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 29-Aug, 
with a chance of G2 due to the combined effects of a possible 
glancing blow from a CME first observed on 27-Aug and high speed 
wind streams from a small coronal hole currently in a geoeffective 
position and a large coronal hole in the southern hemisphere 
which is rotating towards a geoeffective position. G0 geomagnetic 
conditions are expected on 30-Aug, with a possibility of unsettled 
conditions due to the ongoing effects of a coronal hole high 
speed wind stream.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1150UT 27/08, Ended at 1830UT 27/08
 and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1915UT 27/08, Ended at 2125UT 27/08

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions are possible on 28-30 
Aug, particularly during local night hours due to the combined 
effects of coronal hole high speed wind streams and a possible 
glancing blow from a CME first observed on 27-Aug. Shortwave 
fadeouts are possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Aug    58

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      65
Aug      67
Sep      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values
29 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values
30 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 64 was issued on 27 
August and is current for 27-28 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 27-Aug were near predicted monthly values with 
some mild depressions during local night in the Northern Australian 
region. Regional MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted 
monthly values over 28-30, with mild depressions possible on 
29-Aug due to the combined effects of coronal hole high speed 
wind streams and a possible glancing blow from a CME first observed 
on 27-Aug.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Aug
Speed: 337 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:    11500 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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