[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 27 August 22 issued 2330 UT on 27 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 28 09:30:51 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 AUGUST 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 28 AUGUST - 30 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.8 0236UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.2 1138UT possible lower European
M1.1 1525UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.8 1559UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.1 1649UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Aug: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Aug 29 Aug 30 Aug
Activity R1, chance of R2 R0-R1,chance of R2 R0-R1,chance of R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 122/75 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27-Aug was at the R1 level,
with several M-class flares. A long duration M4.8 flare at 27/0242UT,
an impulsive M1.3 flare at 27/0410UT, an impulsive M1.2 flare
at 27/1138UT, an impulsive M1.1 flare at 27/1525UT, a long duration
M1.8 flare at 27/1558UT and an M1.0 flare at 27/1640UT. An S1
level proton event was observed from 27/1150UT to 27/2045UT,
likely due to the long duration M4.8 flare. There are currently
five numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3088 (S19W71,
beta) and AR3089 (S23E33, beta) showed spot development over
the 24-hour period. AR3088 was responsible for almost all of
the M-class flares on 27-Aug, including the M4.8 flare. AR3085
(N30W61, beta) was responsible for the M1.3 flare. The other
sunspot regions were either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R1 level on 28-Aug, with a chance of
R2. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 29-30
Aug, with a chance of R2. A west directed CME was observed in
LASCO and STEREO-A imagery from 27/0223UT. An eruption is visible
in H-alpha and SDO AIA imagery from 27/0146UT associated with
the beginning of the long duration M4.8 flare from AR3088. Modelling
indicates that there is a chance of a glancing impact on 29/1100UT
+/- 12 hours. No other geoeffective CMEs were observed. A filament
eruption is visible in H-alpha, SDO AIA and GOES SUVI imagery
from 27/1807UT at around S10E20. No CME is visible in currently
available imagery, further analysis will be performed when more
imagery becomes available. The solar wind speed on 27-Aug increased,
ranging between 300 and 439 km/s and is currently near 430 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 14
nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +12 to -11
nT. There were two sustained periods of -Bz over the UT day,
one from 27/0824UT to 27/1222UT and one from 27/1635UT to 27/1834UT.
The solar wind is expected to continue to increase over 28-30
Aug, due to the combined effects of a possible glancing blow
from a CME first observed on 27-Aug and high speed wind streams
from a small coronal hole currently in a geoeffective position
and a large coronal hole in the southern hemisphere which is
expected to rotate into a geoeffective position by 29-Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 27 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 11133132
Cocos Island 5 11122122
Darwin 8 11133132
Townsville 9 12133232
Learmonth 8 21133132
Alice Springs 8 02133132
Gingin 7 20123132
Canberra 8 11133132
Hobart 8 11133132
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Aug :
Macquarie Island 13 00045322
Casey 16 34333333
Mawson 19 43223245
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1110 0122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Aug 15 G0
29 Aug 20 G0-G1, chance of G2
30 Aug 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 27-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region on UT day 27-Aug, with an isolated
period of G1 at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected on 28-Aug, with a possibility of unsettled conditions
due to the ongoing effects of a coronal hole high speed wind
stream. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 29-Aug,
with a chance of G2 due to the combined effects of a possible
glancing blow from a CME first observed on 27-Aug and high speed
wind streams from a small coronal hole currently in a geoeffective
position and a large coronal hole in the southern hemisphere
which is rotating towards a geoeffective position. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 30-Aug, with a possibility of unsettled
conditions due to the ongoing effects of a coronal hole high
speed wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1150UT 27/08, Ended at 1830UT 27/08
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1915UT 27/08, Ended at 2125UT 27/08
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions are possible on 28-30
Aug, particularly during local night hours due to the combined
effects of coronal hole high speed wind streams and a possible
glancing blow from a CME first observed on 27-Aug. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Aug 58
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 65
Aug 67
Sep 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
29 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
30 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 64 was issued on 27
August and is current for 27-28 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 27-Aug were near predicted monthly values with
some mild depressions during local night in the Northern Australian
region. Regional MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values over 28-30, with mild depressions possible on
29-Aug due to the combined effects of coronal hole high speed
wind streams and a possible glancing blow from a CME first observed
on 27-Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Aug
Speed: 337 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 11500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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