[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 August 22 issued 2330 UT on 11 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 12 09:30:49 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 AUGUST 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug: 115/66


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Aug             13 Aug             14 Aug
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Aug was at the R0 level, 
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently five 
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3077 (S18W32, 
beta) is the most magnetically complex region and has exhibited 
minor spot growth. AR3076 (N15E21, alpha) has shown growth in 
its trailer spots. A new unnumbered sunspot region recently appeared 
on the solar disk at S14E03 and has shown spot development. All 
other sunspot regions are stable. Solar activity is expected 
to be at the R0 level over 12-14 Aug. No Earth-directed CMEs 
have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 11-Aug was 
elevated due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects, 
ranging from 530 to 590 km/s, and is currently near 555 km/s. 
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 
nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +3 to -7 
nT. A period of southward IMF conditions was observed from 11/1525UT 
to 11/1930UT. The solar wind speed is expected to decrease over 
12-14 Aug as coronal hole high speed wind stream effects abate.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: G1

Estimated Indices 11 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region      15   22243442
      Darwin              11   22232342
      Learmonth           16   22233542
      Alice Springs       13   22242342
      Gingin              19   22243543
      Canberra            16   22253342
      Hobart              18   22253442    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    30   21364642
      Casey               14   33332342
      Mawson              58   55433485

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              15   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             22                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   2312 3242     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Aug    14    G0, slight chance G1
13 Aug     8    G0
14 Aug     5    G0

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 37 was issued on 9 August and 
is current for 10-12 Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in the Australian region on UT day 11-Aug, with isolated 
periods of G1 observed at several sites. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions 
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period 
of G4 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 
12-14 Aug, with a slight chance of G1 on 12-Aug due to ongoing 
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 12-14 Aug, 
with mild degradations possible for high latitudes on 12-Aug 
due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Aug    53

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      65
Aug      67
Sep      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values
13 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values
14 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 11-Aug were 
mostly near predicted monthly values. Spread-F was observed in 
Hobart and Townsville. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted 
monthly values over 12-14 Aug, with mild degradations possible 
on 12-Aug due to increased geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Aug
Speed: 583 km/sec  Density:   10.8 p/cc  Temp:   867000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list