[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 August 22 issued 2330 UT on 12 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 13 09:30:49 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 AUGUST 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 13 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Aug: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 118/70 118/70
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Aug was at the R0 level,
with some C-class flaring activity. There are currently six numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3076 (N15E08, beta),
AR3078 (S26E31, beta) and AR3079 (S10W13, beta) have shown spot
development over the 24 hour period. Three new sunspot regions
have appeared over UT day 12-Aug. The newly appeared regions
at N18W36 and N10E60 have beta magnetic classification and have
shown spot development over the 24 hour period. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R0 level over 13-15 Aug, with a chance of R1. No
Earth-directed CMEs have been observed in available imagery.
The solar wind speed on UT day 12-Aug was elevated due to coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects, ranging from 523 to 634
km/s, and is currently near 570 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +9 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to decrease over 13-15 Aug as coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects abate. There is a possibility of an increase in solar
wind speed over 15-Aug due to an equatorial coronal hole rotating
into a geoeffective location.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 21233101
Darwin 4 21222001
Learmonth 8 22333101
Alice Springs 5 21232001
Gingin 7 22323101
Canberra 7 31233001
Hobart 6 21233101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Aug :
Macquarie Island 10 21253001
Casey 16 34533102
Mawson 18 63323212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14 2324 3433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Aug 8 G0
14 Aug 5 G0
15 Aug 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 12-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions, with
an isolated period of G1, were observed at Macquarie Island and
Casey. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions, with an isolated period
of G2, were observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 13-15 Aug, with a chance of mildly disturbed geomagnetic
conditions on 15-Aug due to the possibility of coronal hole high
speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 13-15 Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Aug 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 65
Aug 67
Sep 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
14 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
15 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 12-Aug were
mostly near predicted monthly values. Spread-F was observed in
the Northeastern Australian region and at Norfolk Island. MUFs
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values over
13-15 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Aug
Speed: 550 km/sec Density: 9.6 p/cc Temp: 438000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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