[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 August 22 issued 2330 UT on 10 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 11 09:30:58 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 AUGUST 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 11 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Aug:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Aug: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Aug             12 Aug             13 Aug
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Aug was at the R0 level, 
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently five 
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3077 (S18W19, 
beta) is the most magnetically complex region and has shown some 
decay. AR3078 (S21E53, alpha) has recently rotated onto the solar 
disk and appears stable. All other sunspot regions are stable. 
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 11-13 Aug. 
No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed 
on UT day 10-Aug was elevated due to coronal hole high speed 
wind stream effects, ranging from 540 to 620 km/s, and is currently 
near 575 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, 
Bt) was 6 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was 
+5 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated 
over 11-13 Aug due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream 
effects, with a declining trend possible from 12-Aug.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Aug: G0

Estimated Indices 10 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   23233322
      Darwin              10   23223322
      Learmonth           12   23333322
      Alice Springs        9   13223322
      Gingin              14   23333423
      Canberra            11   -3223323
      Hobart              10   23133322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    19   13144452
      Casey               20   45423233
      Mawson              43   36443466

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            59   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              99   (Minor storm)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             21   3534 4433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Aug    14    G0, slight chance G1
12 Aug    10    G0
13 Aug     8    G0

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 37 was issued on 9 August and 
is current for 10-12 Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on UT day 10-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic 
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated 
period of G1 at Macquarie Island and isolated periods of G2 at 
Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 11-13 Aug, 
with a slight chance of G1 on 11-Aug due to ongoing coronal hole 
high speed wind stream effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 11-13 Aug, 
with mild degradations possible for high latitudes on 11-Aug 
due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Aug    51

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      65
Aug      67
Sep      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Aug    50    Near predicted monthly values
12 Aug    50    Near predicted monthly values
13 Aug    50    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 10-Aug were 
mostly near predicted monthly values. Spread-F was observed in 
Brisbane, Perth and Townsville. MUFs are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values over 11-13 Aug, with mild degradations 
possible on 11-Aug due to increased geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Aug
Speed: 573 km/sec  Density:    9.1 p/cc  Temp:   543000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list