[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 August 22 issued 2330 UT on 09 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 10 09:30:49 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 AUGUST 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 10 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Aug: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 09-Aug was at the R0 level.
There are currently five numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR3077 (S18W04, beta-gamma) is the most magnetically
complex region and has shown spot development over the 24 hour
period. One unnumbered sunspot region (S21E70, alpha) has recently
rotated onto the solar disk and appears stable. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R0 level over 10-12 Aug, with a chance of R1. Several
CMEs were observed but none are considered geoeffective. The
solar wind speed on UT day 09-Aug was elevated due to coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects, ranging from 532 to 632
km/s, and is currently elevated near 570 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -7 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain elevated over 10-12 Aug due to the ongoing
effects of high speed wind streams from a pair of equatorial
coronal holes, with a possibility of a declining trend on 12-Aug
as the coronal holes rotate out of geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 09 Aug : A K
Australian Region 14 23343332
Darwin 11 23333222
Learmonth 14 23343332
Alice Springs 11 13333232
Gingin 14 23343332
Canberra 13 22343332
Hobart 17 12354332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Aug :
Macquarie Island 48 22676532
Casey 20 44433342
Mawson 34 45553354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 59 (Unsettled)
Hobart 86 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 27 5554 3334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Aug 15 G0, chance of G1
11 Aug 15 G0, chance of G1
12 Aug 15 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 37 was issued on 9 August and
is current for 10-12 Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 09-Aug, with an isolated
period of G1 observed at Hobart due to coronal hole high speed
wind effects. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed at Casey.
G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed at Mawson. G3 geomagnetic
conditions were observed at Macquarie island. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 10-12 Aug, with a chance of G1 due
to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 10-12 Aug,
with mild degradations possible for high latitudes due to coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Aug 58
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 65
Aug 67
Sep 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
11 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
12 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 09-Aug were
mostly near predicted monthly values, with mild depressions observed
in Darwin. Spread-F was observed in Brisbane. MUFs are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values over 10-12 Aug, with
mild degradations possible due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Aug
Speed: 570 km/sec Density: 10.5 p/cc Temp: 752000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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