[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 April 22 issued 2330 UT on 19 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 20 09:30:48 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS R & G SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr:  R1 - minor

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M3/--    2049UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr: 135/89


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Apr             21 Apr             22 Apr
Activity     R1-R3              R1-R3              R1-R3
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: On UT day 19 Apr, solar flare activity was at R1 (minor) 
levels with two M-class flares from region 2993 (N22E35) and 
one from region 2992 (near the southwest limb). No new geoeffective 
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed. A filament eruption 
to the southeast was observed from 19/1600 needs further analysis. 
Solar flare activity is expected to be at R1-R2 (minor to moderate) 
levels with a chance of R3 (strong) levels 20-22 Apr. The solar 
wind speed peaked around 540 km/s on 19 Apr and has trended downwards, 
currently around 460 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic 
field strength (IMF Bt) peaked at 5 nT. The north-south IMF component 
(Bz) range was +4/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is likely to decline 
further during 20-22 Apr.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: G0

Estimated Indices 19 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   23222000
      Darwin               5   23222001
      Townsville           7   23223011
      Learmonth            5   23222000
      Alice Springs        4   13122000
      Gingin               3   22112000
      Canberra             3   13112000
      Hobart               5   13213000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     4   12123000
      Casey                9   34322001
      Mawson              17   44421243

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Apr : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)
      Hobart              11   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   1222 1232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Apr     8    G0
21 Apr     8    G0
22 Apr     8    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
and Antarctic regions on UT day 19 Apr. G0 conditions are likely 
20-22 Apr.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal, with some mild depressions 
at high latitudes on 19 Apr. Similar propagation conditions are 
expected for 20-22 Apr with short-wave fadeouts likely.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Apr    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      64
Apr      46
May      49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Apr    70    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
21 Apr    70    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
22 Apr    70    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 36 was issued on 18 
April and is current for 19-21 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 19 Apr were enhanced over monthly predicted 
values. Spread-F was observed at Hobart 13-20 UT. MUFs are expected 
to be up to 25% enhanced over monthly predicted values during 
20-22 Apr. Short-wave fadeouts are likely.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Apr
Speed: 545 km/sec  Density:   10.7 p/cc  Temp:   670000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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