[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 April 22 issued 2339 UT on 20 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 21 09:39:38 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 21 APRIL - 23 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Apr:  R3 (strong)

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2    0114UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M7.2    0136UT  probable   lower  West Pacific
  X2.2    0357UT  probable   all    E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.9    1253UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Apr: 160/114


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Apr             22 Apr             23 Apr
Activity     R1-R3              R1-R3              R1-R3
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            160/114            160/114

COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 20-Apr reached R3 (strong) 
with an X2 flare from region 2992 (beyond the SW limb). Regions 
2993 (N22E22) and 2994 (N14E22) both produced M1 flares (R1 - minor). 
No geoeffective coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed. 
Solar flare activity is expected to be at R1-R3 (minor to strong) 
levels for 21-23 Apr. The solar wind speed declined from a peak 
around 460 km/s, currently around 400 km/s. The total interplanetary 
magnetic field strength (IMF Bt) peaked around 8 nT. The north-south 
IMF component (Bz) range was +7/-5 nT. The solar wind speed could 
become mildly disturbed by a small coronal hole during 22-23 
Apr.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Apr: G0

Estimated Indices 20 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22110112
      Darwin               3   2211011-
      Townsville           5   22110222
      Learmonth            6   23110213
      Alice Springs        3   22100112
      Gingin               6   23110113
      Canberra             3   12200012
      Hobart               4   13210002    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     2   11200001
      Casey                7   33221112
      Mawson              24   53340216

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   3311 2101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Apr     8    G0
22 Apr    10    G1 (minor) possible
23 Apr    10    G1 (minor) possible

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 20 Apr. Observed conditions reached G1-G2 (minor 
to moderate) levels in Antarctica. G0 conditions are likely 21-Apr 
for the Australian region, with G1 (minor) levels possible 22-23 
Apr due to coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal, with some mild depressions 
at high latitudes on 20 Apr. Similar propagation conditions are 
expected for 21-23 Apr with short-wave fadeouts likely.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Apr    77

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      64
Apr      46
May      49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Apr    75    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
22 Apr    65    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Apr    65    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 36 was issued on 18 
April and is current for 19-21 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 20 Apr were enhanced over monthly predicted 
values. Spread-F was observed at Hobart 13-20 UT. MUFs are expected 
to be 15-25% enhanced over monthly predicted values during 21-23 
Apr. Short-wave fadeouts are likely.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Apr
Speed: 484 km/sec  Density:    5.8 p/cc  Temp:   198000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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