[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 April 22 issued 2331 UT on 18 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 19 09:31:01 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 19 APRIL - 21 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Apr: R1 (minor)
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4/-- 17/2234UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Apr: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Apr 20 Apr 21 Apr
Activity R1-R3 R1-R3 R1-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: On UT day 18 Apr, solar flare activity was at R1 (minor)
levels with two M-class flares from region 2993 (N22E48) and
one from region 2987 (beyond the southwest limb). No new geoeffective
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed. Solar flare activity
is expected to be at R1-R2 (minor to moderate) levels with a
chance of R3 (strong) levels 19-21 Apr. The solar wind speed
range was 500-600 km/s on 18 Apr, currently around 550 km/s.
The total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF Bt) peaked
at 8 nT and then trended down to be currently around 4 nT. The
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7/-6 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to decline during 19-21 Apr unless disturbed
by a possible mild CME impact from late on 19 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 18 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 12220222
Darwin 6 22220222
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 7 22221231
Alice Springs 6 12220232
Gingin 6 12220231
Canberra 5 12220222
Hobart 7 12231222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Apr :
Macquarie Island 7 01331222
Casey 15 34432141
Mawson 24 24432264
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 46 (Unsettled)
Hobart 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 3312 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Apr 9 G0 with a chance of G1
20 Apr 9 G0 with a chance of G1
21 Apr 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 18 Apr. G0 conditions are likely
19-21 Apr. There is a small chance of a G1 (minor) disturbance
from late on 19 Apr due to a CME which occurred on 17 Apr possibly
grazing Earth.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal, with some mild depressions
at high latitudes on 18 Apr. Similar propagation conditions are
expected for 19-21 Apr with short-wave fadeouts likely.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Apr 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 64
Apr 46
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Apr 70 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
20 Apr 70 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
21 Apr 70 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 36 was issued on 18
April and is current for 19-21 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 18 Apr were enhanced over monthly predicted
values. Spread F was observed at Hobart 14-20 UT. MUFs are expected
to be up to 25% enhanced over monthly predicted values during
19-21 Apr. Short-wave fadeouts are likely.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Apr
Speed: 510 km/sec Density: 8.8 p/cc Temp: 214000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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