[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 April 22 issued 2330 UT on 13 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 14 09:30:47 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 14 APRIL - 16 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://www.sws.bom.gov.au
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Apr: R0 - None
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Apr: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr
Activity Ro - None Ro - None Ro - None
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 103/52 105/54
COMMENT: On UT day 13 Apr, solar activity was at R0 level. There
are currently no regions of significance on the solar disk, with
only a few C-flares detected. No new Earth-directed CMEs have
been observed. A CME was observed on the farside over the eastern
limb 13/1325UT but is not geoeffective. A small filament eruption
was observed over the southwestern limb on 13 Apr during 0723-0900
UT, associated with a narrow non-Earth-directed CME. Isolated
equatorial coronal holes are visible crossing the central meridian,
which are expected to increase the solar wind speed after 15-16
Apr. On UT day 13 Apr, the solar wind speed has had a decreasing
trend with a min/max of 414/517 km/s. The total interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF; Bt) peaked at 11 nT and the IMF north-south
component (Bz) varied between +/-6 nT. The expected arrival of
a CME on late 13 Apr has not eventuated, but is still expected
to arrive over the coming UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Apr: G0 - None
Estimated Indices 13 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 22211000
Darwin 4 32211001
Townsville 4 32221000
Learmonth 4 32211000
Alice Springs 3 22210001
Gingin 3 22211000
Canberra 3 22220000
Hobart 4 22321000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Apr :
Macquarie Island 9 22442000
Casey 6 33221101
Mawson 14 35423000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 2101 4433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Apr 30 G0-G1 - Minor (chance of G2 - Moderate)
15 Apr 20 G1-G0 - Minor
16 Apr 14 G0 - None
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 21 was issued on 11 April and
is current for 13-14 Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 13 Apr. G0 levels were predominantly
observed in Antarctica, with a single period of G1 observed at
Mawson. G0 tending towards G1 conditions expected on 14 Apr due
to halo CME impacts associated with a filament eruption observed
on 11 Apr. Chance of isolated G2 periods on 14 Apr. An isolated
equatorial coronal hole is expected to increase geomagnetic activity
from 16-17 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
15 Apr Normal Fair-normal Poor-normal
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Forecast degradations in HF conditions on 13 Apr did
not eventuate, however mild to moderate degradations in HF conditions
remain expected during 14 Apr due to anticipated arrival of coronal
mass ejection observed on 11 Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Apr 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 64
Apr 46
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Apr 65 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values, depressions
possible late in UT Day.
15 Apr 35 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
16 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 33 was issued
on 12 April and is current for 13-15 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 13 Apr were near monthly predicted values to
slightly enhanced. Forecast degraded conditions have not eventuated,
however mild to moderate MUF depressions are still expected at
high to mid latitude regions from late 14 Apr due to the anticipated
arrival of coronal mass ejection observed on 11 Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Apr
Speed: 468 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 208000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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