[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 April 22 issued 2330 UT on 14 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 15 09:30:45 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 15 APRIL - 17 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL: R0-R1  MAG: G0-G1    ION: GREEN
ASWAS Explanation available from our homepage: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Apr:  R0 - None

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Apr: 103/52


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Apr             16 Apr             17 Apr
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0-R1
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Possible
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             110/60             115/66

COMMENT: On UT day 14 Apr, solar activity was at R0 level, with 
a slow rise and fall of the GOES x-ray flux was observed peaking 
at C1.3 around 13UT. The origin of this is minor enhancement 
in x-ray flux is uncertain, possibly related to activity just 
over the north-eastern limb of the Sun. There are four spotted 
regions on the solar disc, with a new small solar region emerging 
in the south western solar hemisphere, though currently none 
of these regions are of significance. Previously flaring solar 
regions AR2975 and AR2976 are due back to the solar north east 
limb of the Sun around 17-18 Apr. Solar activity may then increase 
if these regions have not decayed during there farside transit. 
There are currently some signs of activity over the NE limb possibly 
suggesting the return of AR2975. No new Earth-directed CMEs have 
been observed. A minor relatively narrow south-west directed 
CME was observed in LASCO imagery at approximately 14/0229UT, 
but could not be correlated with any on disk activity so is presumed 
to be a far side event. The solar wind parameters became enhanced 
due to what appears to be the indistinct arrival of the CME from 
11 Apr. Following perhaps a small discontinuity at around 0330UT 
on 14 Apr solar wind speed increased and peaked at 574km/sec 
at 1311UT, then slowly declined. The north-south component (Bz) 
of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) fluctuated only mildly 
to moderately southward during intervals 1234-1446UT and 1547-2130UT. 
Isolated equatorial coronal holes are visible just west of the 
central meridian, which are expected to increase the solar wind 
speed after 15-16 Apr. On UT day 14 Apr, the solar wind speed 
varied between 574/405 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic 
field (IMF; Bt) peaked at 21 nT and the IMF north-south component 
(Bz) varied between +10/-13 nT. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Apr: G0-G1, with an isolated 
G2 period

Estimated Indices 14 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region      21   32343543
      Darwin              17   32243443
      Townsville          18   32343443
      Learmonth           22   32344543
      Alice Springs       23   32343553
      Gingin              25   22344643
      Canberra            17   22343443
      Hobart              22   22353543    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    49   22675553
      Casey               19   33333444
      Mawson              54   26444576

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              16   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        29
           Planetary             44                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   3342 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Apr    20    G0, chance G1 early in UT day.
16 Apr    14    G0
17 Apr    20    G0 with chance of G1 periods

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 22 was issued on 14 April and 
is current for 14-15 Apr. G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
briefly in the Australian region on UT day 14 Apr at Gingin for 
one K index period, other sites ranged from G0-G1. G0-G3 levels 
were observed in Antarctica. In general the activity induced 
by the CME was briefer and arrived later than expected. Geomagnetic 
activity is expected to decline today with a chance for a isolated 
G1 period early in the uT day on 15 Apr. Equatorial coronal holes 
are expected to increase geomagnetic activity from 16-17 Apr.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: HF conditions were degraded at middle to high latitudes 
during local night hours on 14 Apr. HF conditions are expected 
to improve today with degradations persisting at high latitudes. 
Conditions should improve on 16 Apr, then become degraded to 
a lesser degree at middle to high latitudes on 17 Apr due to 
possible coronal hole wind stream induced geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Apr    65

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      64
Apr      46
May      49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Apr    50    Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
16 Apr    60    Near predicted monthly values
17 Apr    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 34 was issued on 14 April 
and is current for 15 Apr only. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) 
on UT day 14 Apr were near monthly predicted values to slightly 
enhanced. HF conditions were degraded for southern Australian 
region during local night hours last night due to geomagnetic 
activity induced from a CME. However, due to the brevity of geomagnetic 
activity on 14 Apr, forecast moderate MUF depressions are generally 
now not expected, with mild depression possible after local today 
for southern region Australia only, then recovering.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Apr
Speed: 467 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:   150000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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