[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 April 22 issued 2330 UT on 12 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 13 09:30:48 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 13 APRIL - 15 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://www.sws.bom.gov.au
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Apr: R0 - None
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Apr: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 98/45 98/45 102/50
COMMENT: On UT day 12 Apr, solar activity was at R0 level. There
are currently no regions of significance on the solar disk, with
only a single C3.8 flare detected. No new Earth-directed CMEs
have been observed. Isolated equatorial coronal holes are visible
near to the central meridian in the northeastern quadrant, which
are expected to increase the solar wind speed in the coming week.
On UT day 12 Apr, the solar wind parameters have been variable
447/522 km/s, with a decreasing trend over the last few days.
The total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF; Bt) peaked at 8
nT and the IMF north-south component (Bz) varied between -8/+4
nT, with a minor southward orientation between 11UT and 16UT.
Solar wind conditions are expected to be enhanced on 13-14 Apr
due to CME impacts from filament eruption observed on 11 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Apr: G0 - None
Estimated Indices 12 Apr : A K
Australian Region 8 21023332
Darwin 8 21123331
Townsville 9 21123332
Learmonth 11 21024432
Alice Springs 7 11023331
Gingin 13 21024442
Canberra 8 11023332
Hobart 9 10024332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Apr :
Macquarie Island 16 10035531
Casey 14 33323432
Mawson 18 33123354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 14 4433 2231
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Apr 30 G0-G1 - Minor
14 Apr 20 G1-G0 - Minor
15 Apr 14 G0 - None
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 21 was issued on 11 April and
is current for 13-14 Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 12 Apr. G1 levels were observed
in Antarctica. G0 tending towards G1 conditions expected on 13-14
Apr due to halo CME impacts associated with filament eruption
observed on 11 Apr. Chance of isolated G2 period late on 13 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
14 Apr Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF degradations may be observed on
13-14 Apr due to anticipated arrival of coronal mass ejection
observed on 11 Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Apr 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 64
Apr 46
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Apr 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
14 Apr 35 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
15 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 33 was issued
on 12 April and is current for 13-15 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 12 Apr were near monthly predicted values to
slightly enhanced. Mild to moderate MUF degradations may be observed
at high to mid latitude regions on 13-14 Apr due to anticipated
arrival of coronal mass ejection observed on 11 Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Apr
Speed: 515 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 332000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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