[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 September 21 issued 2331 UT on 28 Sep 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 29 09:31:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 SEPTEMBER - 01 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Sep: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Sep 30 Sep 01 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 84/26 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 28 September with a
C1.6 flare from AR2871 at 0634 UT. The flare was accompanied
by a type II sweep with estimated shock speed of 534 km/s, and
a partial halo CME first observed at 0700 UT which is expected
to arrive at Earth around the middle of UT day, 01 October. There
was a small increase in the >=10 MeV proton flux with this flare.
AR 2871 (S28W54) continues to decay, AR 2877 (S19W24) has grown,
and two new spot regions have developed, AR 2880 (N29E58) and
SN95 (N15W18). Solar activity is expected to be low with a small
chance of M flares. There were no other CMEs of note. On UT day
28 September, the solar wind speed range was 424 to 547 km/s,
peaking at 1210 UT; wind speed is currently near 490 km/s. The
total IMF (Bt) peaked at 12 nT at the start of the day and the
north-south IMF (Bz) component range was +11/-4 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to be mildly enhanced over 29-30 September.
On 01 October, the solar wind is expected to become moderately
disturbed with the arrival of the 27 and 28 September CMEs. It
is less certain if the 26 September CME will impact.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 22222222
Cocos Island 4 11111221
Darwin 6 22122221
Townsville 8 22232222
Learmonth 9 22232232
Alice Springs 7 22222222
Gingin 8 22222232
Canberra 7 11232222
Hobart 7 12232222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Sep :
Macquarie Island 11 12152321
Casey 15 34432232
Mawson 40 24433376
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Hobart 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2223 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Sep 9 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Oct 25 Quiet to Minor Storm
COMMENT: On UT day 28 September, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were quiet to unsettled. In the Antarctic region,
quiet to severe storm levels were observed. The expected disturbance
on 28 September did not eventuate. Mostly quiet to unsettled
conditions are likely on 29-30 September. On 01 October, quiet
to minor storm levels are expected with the arrival of the 27
and 28 September CMEs.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were normal on 28 September.
Conditions are expected to be normal on 29 September to 01 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Sep 37
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 14
Sep 27
Oct 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values
30 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values
01 Oct 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 28 September
were mostly near predicted monthly values with some nighttime
enhancements. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values on 29 September to 01 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: NA
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: NA
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: NA
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: NA
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Sep
Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 10.4 p/cc Temp: 14000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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