[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 September 21 issued 2331 UT on 29 Sep 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 30 09:31:13 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 SEPTEMBER - 02 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Sep: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Sep 01 Oct 02 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 29 September with five
low level C flares from ARs 2880 (N29E45) and 2877 (S19W37).
These spot regions have increased in size and magnetic complexity.
AR 2871 (S28W68) and newly assigned AR 2881 (N17W38) have been
stable and quiet. Solar activity is expected to be low with a
small chance of M flares. There were no Earth directed CMEs observed
in the available images. On UT day 29 September, the solar wind
speed declined from a peak of 491 km/s at 0113 UT to 388 km/s.
The peak total IMF (Bt) was 4 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz)
component range was +1/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to be at background levels on 30 September. On 01 October, the
solar wind is expected to become moderately disturbed in the
first half of the UT day due to the CMEs launched on 27 and 28
September.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 11012112
Cocos Island 1 01010111
Darwin 4 12112112
Townsville 4 11112112
Learmonth 3 11012112
Alice Springs 2 01012102
Gingin 5 11112222
Canberra 3 11012012
Hobart 4 11022112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Sep :
Macquarie Island 3 00023011
Casey 10 24322122
Mawson 11 41322133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 1223 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Sep 9 Quiet to Unsettled. Chance of an Active period
late in the UT day.
01 Oct 25 Quiet to Minor Storm
02 Oct 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 31 was issued on 28 September
and is current for 29 Sep to 1 Oct. On UT day 29 September, geomagnetic
conditions in the Australian region were quiet. In the Antarctic
region, quiet to active levels were observed. Mostly quiet to
unsettled conditions are likely on 30 September although there
is a chance of an active period late if the 28 September CME
arrives earlier than expected. On 01 October, quiet to minor
storm levels are expected due to the 27 and 28 September CMEs.
On UT day 02 October, mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are
likely.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were normal on 29 September.
Conditions are expected to be normal on 30 September to 01 October,
becoming degraded late on 01 October. Degraded conditions are
likely on 02 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Sep 31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 14
Sep 27
Oct 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values
01 Oct 25 Near predicted monthly values with depressions
after local dawn
02 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 29 September
were mostly near predicted monthly values with some nighttime
enhancements. There was nighttime spread F observed at Hobart.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values on 30 September
to 01 October with likely depressions after dawn on UT day 01
October and 02 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Sep
Speed: 512 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 191000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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