[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 September 21 issued 2337 UT on 27 Sep 2021

Tue Sep 28 09:37:03 EST 2021

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 SEPTEMBER - 30 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Sep:  85/27

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Sep             29 Sep             30 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    86/29              84/26              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 27 September. 
There are five numbered regions on the visible disc. AR2871 (N28W42, 
Csi/beta-gamma) has decayed as have most other regions apart 
from AR2877 (S19W12, Bxo/beta) which has grown. Solar activity 
is expected to be low with a small chance of M flares. AR2871 
was the origin of two narrow CMEs first observed at 26/2336 UT 
and 27/1224 UT and directed westward. These may just impact Earth 
on 01 October. On UT day 27 September, the solar wind speed range 
was 352 to 467 km/s, increasing after ~2030 UT. The total IMF 
(Bt) range was 6-15 nT, peaking after 27/1800 UT and the north-south 
IMF (Bz) component range was +13/-8 nT. The solar wind speed 
is expected to be moderately enhanced on UT days 28-29 September 
due to the combined effects of an extension of a northern polar 
coronal hole and glancing blows from the 23 September CMEs caused 
by two M-class flares and the 24 September filament eruption 
CME.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22120212
      Cocos Island         3   21110112
      Darwin               6   32120222
      Townsville           7   32220222
      Learmonth            6   32120212
      Alice Springs        5   22120212
      Gingin               4   22110212
      Canberra             5   22120212
      Hobart               5   22220212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     3   21120101
      Casey               13   44321213
      Mawson              11   35211212

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             21                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0000 0102     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Sep    25    Unsettled to Minor Storm. Chance of a Major Storm 
                period.
29 Sep    12    Quiet to Active.
30 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: On UT day 27 September, geomagnetic conditions in the 
Australian region were quiet. In the Antarctic region, quiet 
to minor storm levels were observed. Unsettled to active conditions 
with isolated minor to major storm periods are expected on UT 
day 28 September. This disturbance is due to combined coronal 
hole and CME effects. On 29 September, mostly quiet to unsettled 
conditions with possible active periods are expected. Quiet to 
unsettled conditions are expected on 30 September.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Sep      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
29 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
30 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are likely to become degraded 
over 28 September due to the expected increase in geomagnetic 
activity. Degradations are likely on 29-30 September.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
27 Sep    37

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
      25% 17-19 UT.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      14
Sep      27
Oct      30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Sep    25    Near predicted monthly values
29 Sep    15    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
30 Sep    15    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 27 September 
were mostly near predicted monthly values with nighttime enhancements. 
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values on 28 September 
with mild depressions on 29-30 September.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Sep
Speed: 426 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    67800 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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