[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 September 21 issued 2330 UT on 14 Sep 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 15 09:30:56 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Sep: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 14 September with a
C1.1 flare at 0649 UT from region 2868. There are currently three
numbered regions on the visible disk 2866, 2868 and 2869 that
are all approaching the southwestern limb. Regions 2866 and 2868
are spotted but are decaying. The other region 2869 has decayed
to a plage. Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low
levels on UT days 15-17 September. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24
hours. On UT day 14 September, the solar wind speed followed
a decreasing trend from 480 km/s down to 435 km/s. The total
IMF (Bt) peaked at 5 nT and the north-south component (Bz) varied
in range -4/+4 nT. Slightly enhanced solar wind speeds are expected
on UT days 15-17 September due to weak coronal hole and CME effects.
On UT day 17 September the solar wind speed could be slightly
elevated if the 13 September DSF CME delivers a glancing blow
at Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 11122221
Cocos Island 3 12-11110
Darwin 4 11121221
Townsville 5 11122221
Learmonth 5 21122220
Alice Springs 5 11122221
Gingin 4 20112221
Canberra 4 10122121
Hobart 4 10122221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Sep :
Macquarie Island 4 00123120
Casey 12 33432221
Mawson 16 42232235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 1132 3213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Sep 5 Quiet
16 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Sep 15 Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods
COMMENT: On UT day 14 September, the geomagnetic conditions in
the Australian region were at quiet levels. In the Antarctic
region, quiet to active levels were observed with one storm period.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet on UT day 15
September and then mostly quiet to unsettled on UT days 16-17
September due to weak coronal hole and CME effects. Some active
periods are possible on UT day 17 September if the 13 September
DSF CME delivers a glancing blow at Earth.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days 15-17 September. Some mild degradations
in HF propagation conditions may occur on UT day 17 September
due to a possible increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Sep 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 14
Sep 27
Oct 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values
16 Sep 15 Near predicted monthly values
17 Sep 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 14 September
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Some moderately depressed
MUFs were observed over the Cocos Island region during the local
night. MUFs in the Australian region on UT days 15-17 September
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values. Some
mild MUF depressions may occur on UT day 17 September due to
a possible increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Sep
Speed: 467 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 217000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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