[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 September 21 issued 2330 UT on 15 Sep 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 16 09:30:54 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 SEPTEMBER - 18 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Sep: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Sep 17 Sep 18 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 15 September.
The visible disk of the Sun is now spotless. There are currently
two numbered regions on the visible disk 2866 and 2869 that have
both decayed to plages and are rotating off the southwestern
limb. Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on
UT days 16-18 September. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.
On UT day 15 September, the solar wind speed followed a decreasing
trend from 460 km/s down to 335 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) peaked
at 4 nT and the north-south component (Bz) varied in the range
-4/+3 nT. On UT day 16 September, the solar wind speed is expected
to remain near background levels. Then on UT days 17-18 September
the solar wind speed is expected to be slightly enhanced due
to a northern coronal hole moving into geoeffective position.
Also on UT days 17-18 September the solar wind speed could be
slightly elevated if the 13 September DSF CME delivers a glancing
blow at Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 11110112
Cocos Island 2 11110101
Darwin 3 22110102
Townsville 3 11120112
Learmonth 3 11011112
Alice Springs 1 00110101
Gingin 3 11110112
Canberra 2 01220101
Hobart 3 01220111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Sep :
Macquarie Island 2 01221000
Casey 7 23321112
Mawson 15 43222125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2012 3221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Sep 7 Quiet
17 Sep 15 Quiet to Unsettled with possible Active periods
18 Sep 15 Quiet to Unsettled with possible Active periods
COMMENT: On UT day 15 September, the geomagnetic conditions in
the Australian region were at quiet levels. In the Antarctic
region, quiet to active levels were observed. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be quiet on UT day 16 September and then mostly
quiet to unsettled on UT days 17-18 September due to weak coronal
hole effects. Some active periods are possible on UT days 17-18
September if the 13 September DSF CME delivers a glancing blow
at Earth.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days 16-18 September. Some mild degradations
in HF propagation conditions may occur on UT days 17-18 September
due to a possible increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Sep 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 14
Sep 27
Oct 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Sep 15 Near predicted monthly values
17 Sep 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
18 Sep 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 15 September
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Some mildly depressed
MUFs were observed over the Cocos Island region. MUFs in the
Australian region on UT days 16-18 September are expected to
be mostly near predicted monthly values. Some mild MUF depressions
may occur on UT days 17-18 September due to a possible increase
in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Sep
Speed: 446 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 75700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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