[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 September 21 issued 2330 UT on 13 Sep 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 14 09:30:55 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 SEPTEMBER - 16 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Sep: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 81/22 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 13 September.
There are currently three numbered regions on the visible disk
2866, 2868 and 2869 that are all approaching the western limb.
Regions 2866 and 2868 are spotted but are decaying. The other
region 2869 has decayed to a plage. Solar activity is expected
to be at very low to low levels on UT days 14-16 September. The
large unstable filament that was being monitored crossing the
CM has erupted. There was a DSF near N45W15 around 13/01-05UT
in H-alpha and SDO images. A corresponding westward CME was observed
in Lasco images starting at 13/01UT. Preliminary analysis indicates
that this CME could deliver a glancing blow at Earth on UT day
16 September at around 22 UT. No other Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24
hours. On UT day 13 September, the solar wind parameters continue
to indicate weak coronal hole or CME effects. The solar wind
speed followed an increasing trend from 410 km/s up to 520 km/s.
The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 10 nT and the north-south component
(Bz) varied in range -7/+8 nT. Slightly enhanced solar wind speeds
are expected on UT days 14-16 September due to weak coronal hole
and CME effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 11323212
Cocos Island 3 01212101
Darwin 6 12223112
Townsville 7 11323212
Learmonth 8 12323212
Alice Springs 7 01323212
Gingin 5 11222212
Canberra 6 01223212
Hobart 7 11323212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Sep :
Macquarie Island 9 01244201
Casey 13 24432213
Mawson 23 32333346
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1112 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Sep 7 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 13 September, the geomagnetic conditions in
the Australian region were at quiet to unsettled levels. In the
Antarctic region, quiet to active levels were observed with one
storm period. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly
quiet to unsettled on UT days 14-16 September due to weak coronal
hole and CME effects
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days 14-16 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Sep 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 14
Sep 27
Oct 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Sep 25 Near predicted monthly values
15 Sep 25 Near predicted monthly values
16 Sep 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 13 September
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Some mildly depressed
MUFs were observed over the Cocos Island region. MUFs in the
Australian region on UT days 14-16 September are expected to
be mostly near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Sep
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 51500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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