[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 September 21 issued 2330 UT on 12 Sep 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 13 09:30:56 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 SEPTEMBER - 15 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Sep: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 86/29 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 12 September.
There are currently three numbered regions on the visible disk,two
of which are magnetically complex,namely 2866 and 2868. These
two regions still hold a Beta magnetic class and the potential
to produce isolated M-class flares. The other region, 2869 is
small and magnetically simple. All regions on the visible disk
are currently decaying. Solar activity is expected to be at very
low to low levels on UT days 13-15 September with a slight chance
of isolated M-class flares due to the magnetic complexity of
regions 2868 and 2866. A prominence lifted off from the NW limb
around 12/1500UT( H-Alpha and SDO images). LASCO imagery observed
a CME to the west around 12/1537UT, currently estimated to miss
earth but further analysis will be conducted when satellite images
become available. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.
A large unstable filament crossing the CM is monitored for any
eruption. On UT day 12 September, the solar wind parameters seem
to indicate weak coronal hole impacts. The solar wind speed was
slightly enhanced, increasing in trend, currently around 410
Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 10 nT and the north-south
component (Bz) varied in range -6/+6 nT with a sustained southward
period between 12/0740UT-1400UT. Slightly enhanced solar wind
speeds are expected today 13 September then mostly near background
solar wind speeds on 14-15 September.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 21122212
Cocos Island 4 11121211
Darwin 6 22221212
Townsville 6 21232112
Learmonth 7 22132212
Alice Springs 5 22122112
Gingin 4 11122211
Canberra 4 11122102
Hobart 5 11232101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Sep :
Macquarie Island 6 01134001
Casey 9 23331212
Mawson 8 11223322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 4011 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Sep 5 Quiet
15 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 12 September, the geomagnetic conditions in
the Australian region were mostly at quiet levels with some isolated
unsettled periods. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be mostly quiet on UT days 13-15 with possible unsettled periods
due to weak coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 13-15 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Sep 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 14
Sep 27
Oct 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values
14 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values
15 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 12 September
were near predicted monthly values. Periods of mildly depressed
MUFs were observed over the Cocos Island region during the local
night. MUFs in the Australian region on UT days 13- 15 September
are expected to be near predicted monthly values with a slight
chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+00
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.3E-01
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.36E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: 1.32E-8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Sep
Speed: 323 km/sec Density: 7.8 p/cc Temp: 36300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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