[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 October 21 issued 2331 UT on 22 Oct 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 23 10:31:11 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Oct             24 Oct             25 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    88/32              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 22 October. There 
are two numbered regions on the visible disc. AR2886 (S19E11, 
Hsx/alpha) is stable and AR2887 (S27E71, Dao/beta-gamma-delta) 
has produced a number of B-class flares. There is also unnumbered 
region SN19 (N22E29, Bxo/beta). Solar activity is expected to 
be low on 23-25 October with a chance of moderate activity. An 
event at 21/2157 UT from S25E04, may be the source of a narrow 
CME observed in STEREO A images from 22/0538 UT. The CME arrival 
at Earth is likely on 25 October. There was a small filament 
eruption from S30W03 at 22/1456 UT but there does not appear 
to be any associated CME. On UT day 22 October, the solar wind 
speed mostly ranged between 420 km/s and 503 km/s. The total 
IMF (BT) peaked at 6 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component 
range was +4/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be near 
background levels on 23-25 October with mild enhancements later 
on 25 October.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   10112112
      Darwin               4   21112112
      Townsville           4   11112112
      Learmonth            4   20112112
      Alice Springs        3   11112102
      Gingin               1   10001001
      Canberra             2   10011012
      Hobart               1   10011101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     0   10001000
      Casey                8   33312112
      Mawson               5   31212011

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              16   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              6   2322 0202     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
24 Oct     7    Quiet
25 Oct    13    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region 
were quiet on UT day 22 October and quiet to unsettled in the 
Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be mostly 
quiet 23-24 October. Initially quiet conditions are expected 
on 25 October, with unsettled to active conditions later with 
the arrival of a slow CME.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 23-25 October. Some mild degradations in HF propagation 
conditions are likely on UT day 23 October.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Oct     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      24
Oct      29
Nov      33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Oct    10    Near predicted monthly values
24 Oct    15    Near predicted monthly values
25 Oct    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 22 October were 
mostly near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. Some depressions 
to 40% observed at Niue and Cocos Is. in the pre-dawn hours. 
MUFs are likely to be near predicted monthly values to mildly 
depressed on UT days 23-25 October.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.6E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Oct
Speed: 520 km/sec  Density:    8.1 p/cc  Temp:   268000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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