[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 October 21 issued 2331 UT on 23 Oct 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 24 10:31:11 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Oct: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 92/37
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 23 October. There
are two numbered regions on the visible disc. AR2886 (S19W02,
Hsx/alpha) is stable and quiet, and AR2887 (S27E57, Dao/beta)
continues to produce B-class flares. Solar activity is expected
to be very low to low on 24-26 October. There were no Earth directed
CMEs observed in the coronagraph images. On UT day 23 October,
there was a small step in the solar wind parameters at 0018 UT
with little effect. The solar wind speed range was 474 km/s to
333 km/s, declining over the day. The peak total IMF (BT) was
4 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range was +2/-3 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to be near background levels
on 24-25 October with possible mild enhancements later on 25
October due to the expected arrival of a slow, weak CME. Mostly
background conditions are likely on 26 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11000021
Darwin 2 21100021
Townsville 2 21100021
Learmonth 2 10010022
Alice Springs 2 11000021
Gingin 3 10000032
Canberra 1 11000010
Hobart 1 11000011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 8 33220032
Mawson 13 51220143
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1000 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Oct 7 Quiet
25 Oct 13 Quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active
periods
26 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 23 October and at quiet to minor storm levels
in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions are likely to
be quiet on 24 and early 25 October. A slow CME may arrive later
on 25 October and cause unsettled to active conditions. Mostly
quiet to unsettled conditions are expected 26 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 24-26 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Oct 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 24
Oct 29
Nov 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values
25 Oct 25 Near predicted monthly values
26 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 23 October were
mostly near predicted monthly values to mildly depressed. There
were some depressions to 35% observed at Niue during the day
and in the pre-dawn hours. Sporadic E was observed at Norfolk
Is. 04-07 UT and Cocos Is. 10-12 UT. MUFs are likely to be near
predicted monthly values to mildly depressed on 24-26 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Oct
Speed: 461 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 153000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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