[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 October 21 issued 2323 UT on 21 Oct 2021

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 22 10:23:51 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Oct:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Oct             23 Oct             24 Oct
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              83/24              84/26

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 21 October, but 
a new region just beyond the southeast limb produced several 
B-class flares. There is currently one numbered region on the 
visible disk of the Sun AR2886 (S19E26). Very low to low solar 
activity is expected for the next three UT days 22-24 October, 
with a small chance of a M-class flare from the new region approaching 
the southeast limb. There was a DSF near N30W43 around 21/05 
UT observed in H-alpha images, and another smaller DSF near N50W35 
around 21/16 UT. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the 
available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 21 October, the the 
solar wind speed was between 475 km/s and 560 km/s. The total 
IMF (BT) peaked at 8 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component 
range was +5/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be slightly 
enhanced on UT day 22 October, due to the high speed stream from 
a large extension of a southern polar coronal hole. Then on UT 
days 23-24 October the solar wind speed is expected to return 
to background levels as coronal hole effects fade.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22111221
      Darwin               4   22111211
      Townsville           5   22111221
      Learmonth            4   22111211
      Alice Springs        5   22211221
      Gingin               4   21111221
      Canberra             4   21111121
      Hobart               4   21211211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     5   12320111
      Casey               19   55421222
      Mawson              17   33322145

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Oct : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              43   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            59   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              44   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1200 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Oct    11    Quiet to unsettled with a possible isolated active 
                period
23 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
24 Oct     7    Mostly quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region 
were quiet on UT day 21 October. In the Antarctic region, quiet 
to active levels with two minor storm periods were observed. 
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled, 
with a possible isolated active period, on UT day 22 October 
due to coronal hole effects. Then quiet to unsettled conditions 
are expected on UT day 23 October and mostly quiet conditions 
on UT day 24 October, as coronal hole effects fade.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
23 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 22-24 October. Some mild degradation in HF propagation 
conditions are possible on UT day 22 October due to recent geomagnetic 
activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Oct     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      24
Oct      29
Nov      33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Oct     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
23 Oct    10    Near predicted monthly values
24 Oct    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 21 October were 
mostly near predicted monthly values, with some mild depressions 
in the northern Australian region and the Cocos Island region. 
There were also some mild depressions in the southern Australian 
region during the local day. MUFs are expected to be mostly near 
predicted monthly values on UT days 22-24 October. Some mild 
MUF depressions are possible on UT day 22 October due to recent 
geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Oct
Speed: 402 km/sec  Density:   11.9 p/cc  Temp:    68200 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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