[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 October 21 issued 2323 UT on 21 Oct 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 22 10:23:51 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Oct: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 83/24 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 21 October, but
a new region just beyond the southeast limb produced several
B-class flares. There is currently one numbered region on the
visible disk of the Sun AR2886 (S19E26). Very low to low solar
activity is expected for the next three UT days 22-24 October,
with a small chance of a M-class flare from the new region approaching
the southeast limb. There was a DSF near N30W43 around 21/05
UT observed in H-alpha images, and another smaller DSF near N50W35
around 21/16 UT. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the
available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 21 October, the the
solar wind speed was between 475 km/s and 560 km/s. The total
IMF (BT) peaked at 8 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component
range was +5/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be slightly
enhanced on UT day 22 October, due to the high speed stream from
a large extension of a southern polar coronal hole. Then on UT
days 23-24 October the solar wind speed is expected to return
to background levels as coronal hole effects fade.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 22111221
Darwin 4 22111211
Townsville 5 22111221
Learmonth 4 22111211
Alice Springs 5 22211221
Gingin 4 21111221
Canberra 4 21111121
Hobart 4 21211211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Oct :
Macquarie Island 5 12320111
Casey 19 55421222
Mawson 17 33322145
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Oct :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 43 (Unsettled)
Canberra 59 (Unsettled)
Hobart 44 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1200 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Oct 11 Quiet to unsettled with a possible isolated active
period
23 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Oct 7 Mostly quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region
were quiet on UT day 21 October. In the Antarctic region, quiet
to active levels with two minor storm periods were observed.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled,
with a possible isolated active period, on UT day 22 October
due to coronal hole effects. Then quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected on UT day 23 October and mostly quiet conditions
on UT day 24 October, as coronal hole effects fade.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 22-24 October. Some mild degradation in HF propagation
conditions are possible on UT day 22 October due to recent geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Oct 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 24
Oct 29
Nov 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 Oct 10 Near predicted monthly values
24 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 21 October were
mostly near predicted monthly values, with some mild depressions
in the northern Australian region and the Cocos Island region.
There were also some mild depressions in the southern Australian
region during the local day. MUFs are expected to be mostly near
predicted monthly values on UT days 22-24 October. Some mild
MUF depressions are possible on UT day 22 October due to recent
geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Oct
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 11.9 p/cc Temp: 68200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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