[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 October 21 issued 2331 UT on 20 Oct 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 21 10:31:15 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 OCTOBER - 23 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Oct: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 20 October. There
is currently one numbered region on the visible disk of the Sun
AR2886 (S19E38). Very low solar activity is expected for the
next three UT days 21-23 October. No Earth directed CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 20 October,
the the solar wind speed was between 375 km/s and 420 km/s. The
total IMF (BT) peaked at 9 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component
range was +5/-6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
slightly enhanced on UT day 21 October, due to the high speed
streams from a small northern coronal hole and a large extension
of a southern polar coronal hole. Then on UT days 22-23 October
the solar wind speed is expected to return to background levels
as coronal hole effects fade.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 22012212
Darwin 5 22112212
Townsville 6 22112222
Learmonth 7 22013223
Alice Springs 4 12012212
Gingin 3 21002112
Canberra 3 12002112
Hobart 4 12102112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Oct :
Macquarie Island 2 12001111
Casey 12 33421133
Mawson 10 23211234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 2321 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Oct 11 Quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active
periods
22 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Oct 7 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region
were mostly quiet on UT day 20 October. In the Antarctic region,
quiet to unsettled levels with one active period were observed.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled
with possible isolated active periods on UT day 21 October due
to coronal hole effects. Then quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected on UT days 22-23 October as coronal hole effects fade.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
22 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 21-23 October. Some mild to moderate degradations
in HF propagation conditions are possible on UT days 21-22 October
due to the increase in geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Oct -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 24
Oct 29
Nov 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
22 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 Oct 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 20 October were
mostly near predicted monthly values, with some moderate depressions
in the northern Australian region and the Southern Australian
region. There were also some mild depressions in the Cocos Island
region during the local night. MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values on UT days 21-23 October. Some
mild to moderate MUF depressions are possible on UT days 21-22
October due to the increase in geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Oct
Speed: 375 km/sec Density: 11.7 p/cc Temp: 116000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list