[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 October 21 issued 2331 UT on 08 Oct 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 9 10:31:07 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 OCTOBER - 11 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Oct:  92/37


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Oct             10 Oct             11 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 08 October. There is 
currently one numbered region with sunspots on the visible solar 
disk, AR 2882; it produced two C-class flares on 08 October. 
Low solar activity is expected for UT days 09-11 October with 
a slight chance of low M-class flares. No Earth directed CMEs 
have been observed in the available coronagraph data. On UT day 
08 October, the solar wind speed varied mostly between 280 and 
310 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied from 2 to 4 nT, and the north-south 
IMF (Bz) component range was +2/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is 
expected to be mostly near its nominal levels for the next three 
UT days, 09 to 11 October.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 08 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11001001
      Cocos Island         0   11000000
      Darwin               2   12101001
      Townsville           2   12001011
      Learmonth            2   12001002
      Alice Springs        1   11101001
      Gingin               1   11001011
      Canberra             1   10001001
      Hobart               1   11101001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     0   00110000
      Casey                7   33311111
      Mawson              11   31101153

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1111 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Oct     7    Quiet
10 Oct     7    Quiet
11 Oct     7    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region 
were quiet on UT day 08 October. In the Antarctic region the 
geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled. Mostly 
quiet global geomagnetic conditions with possible unsettled periods 
are expected for the next three UT days, 09 to 11 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were normal on 08 October. 
Normal HF conditions are expected for the next three UT days, 
09-11 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Oct    20

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      24
Oct      29
Nov      33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Oct    20    Near predicted monthly values
10 Oct    20    Near predicted monthly values
11 Oct    20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 08 October were 
mostly near predicted monthly values with periods of mild depressions 
in the Southern Australian region during local day. MUFs are 
likely to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 
09-11 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Oct
Speed: 307 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:    42200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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